Uzbekistan Inflation Expectations Fall to 10.6%

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has reported a decline in inflation expectations among the population and businesses to their lowest levels in recent months, according to its April survey.

The study, which included 3,475 respondents, showed that the average forecast for price growth over the next 12 months stood at 10.6%, down by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month. The median indicator remained unchanged at 9.5%.

Regional differences and structure of expectations

The highest inflation expectations among regions were recorded in Tashkent region at 11.7%. In Tashkent city, the figure stood at 11%, ranking fourth after Kashkadarya and Surkhandarya regions, both at 11.4%. The lowest levels were recorded in Karakalpakstan at 9.6%, as well as in Samarkand and Navoi regions at 9.8% each.

By occupation, the highest expectations for price growth were recorded among pensioners at 12.6%, trade workers at 12.2%, and employees in services and education at 11.8%. The lowest levels were observed among students at 9%, public sector employees at 9.6%, and tourism sector workers at 9.7%.

Inflation expectations also showed a correlation with income levels. Respondents earning more than 30 million soums per month expected price growth of 16.5%, while those in the 20–30 million soum income group reported 14.9%.

Lower expectations were recorded among respondents earning 15–20 million soums (10.5%), 2–4 million soums (9.9%), and below 2 million soums (10.1%).

Factors influencing public expectations

Survey participants identified rising utility costs, increasing energy prices, and higher food prices as the main factors shaping inflation expectations. Transportation costs and exchange rate fluctuations were also cited.

Business expectations

A separate survey of 1,700 entrepreneurs also showed a decline in inflation expectations to the lowest levels in recent years. The average forecast for the next 12 months stood at 10.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The median indicator fell to 9.3%.

The highest expectations among businesses were recorded in Tashkent at 11.4%. In several regions, including Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya, Jizzakh, and Samarkand, the figure stood at 11.1%. The lowest levels were observed in Karakalpakstan at 9.2%, and Navoi and Fergana regions at 9.4% each.

By sector, the highest expectations were recorded in culture at 12%, crafts at 11.8%, and healthcare at 11.5%. More optimistic assessments were seen in transport, catering, and construction, ranging from 9% to 9.9%.

The main factors influencing business expectations were rising utility tariffs, higher energy costs, transport expenses, rising raw material prices, currency fluctuations, tax burden, and wage growth.