Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Experts from the Institute for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research (IPMI) conducted a factor analysis of the economic growth of the regions of Uzbekistan, which makes it possible to identify the nature of transformation processes and territorial features of the country’s development.

The study used the method of decomposition analysis (Job Generation and Growth Decomposition), developed by the World Bank to study the impact of growth in labor productivity and employment in the main sectors of the economy on GDP (GRP) growth.

For reference, using the method of decomposition analysis, the World Bank is studying the factors of poverty reduction, identifying "unemployed growth". "Jobless growth" is an economic phenomenon in which economic growth is accompanied by a constant or declining level of employment. The term was first used in an article in The New York Times in 1935.

The application of this methodology for the regions of Uzbekistan makes it possible to identify the sectors that are most significant in the development of the territories, holding back the economic growth of the regions, as well as to identify priority areas for reducing unemployment and the level of poverty of the population.

As initial data, indicators of labor productivity, employed in the main sectors of the economy, the population, including the able-bodied population, were chosen. The factor assessment includes an analysis of indicators for the Republic of Karakalpakstan, 12 regions and the city of Tashkent for 2018-2021.

According to the results of the study, in Tashkent, Namangan, Syrdarya, Navoi, Jizzakh, Khorezm, Ferghana regions and the Republic of Karakalpakstan, economic growth is above the average (+11.0%) in the regions of the country. The remaining 6 regions were distinguished by moderate development (+5.9-10.8%).

Economic growth in Namangan, Jizzakh, Khorezm, Ferghana regions, in whose economy the agricultural sector dominates (the share of agriculture in GRP is 35.0-54.0%) and the Republic of Karakalpakstan, is accompanied by an increase in labor productivity inherent in all regions of the country, as well as an increase in the level of employment of the population. This indicates that in these territories the development of the economy is carried out through the introduction of new production facilities (fuel and energy, electrical, pharmaceutical industries, services, construction) and the creation of effective jobs.

Calculations also show that in economically developed regions (GRP per capita is 1.3-2.8 times higher than the republican parameter), such as Tashkent and Navoi regions, economic growth occurs mainly due to the development of existing basic industries that form the competitive advantages of the territories (metallurgy, fuel and energy complex). These regions are distinguished by the presence on their territory of highly productive activities, mainly in the service sector and industry.

Relatively low economic growth is observed in the densely populated Andijan and Kashkadarya regions (GRP per capita growth for 2018-2021 is below 7-8%). This situation is caused by some reduction in production (in the example, the automotive and petrochemical industries, construction) due to certain instability observed in the world in the period 2019-2021.

As a result of the assessment, IPMI experts identified potential high-performance industries that contribute to ensuring a balanced economic development of the regions:

in the service sector - the Republic of Karakalpakstan, Andijan, Bukhara, Kashkadarya, Namangan, Samarkand regions and Tashkent city;

in construction - Tashkent city, Namangan region;

in industry - Andijan, Kashkadarya, Navoi, Tashkent regions;

in the agricultural sector - Bukhara, Samarkand, Surkhandarya, Syrdarya, Ferghana, Khorezm regions.