Central Bank of Uzbekistan Keeps Key Rate at 14%

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Board of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan decided on 29 April 2026, to keep the main policy rate unchanged at 14% per annum, citing the need to maintain tight monetary conditions to ensure a sustained decline in inflation.

According to the regulator, inflation in the country continues to decrease, although the pace of disinflation has slowed due to stronger external pressures. Updated forecasts suggest that inflation is expected to reach around 6.5% by the end of 2026.

The Central Bank noted that in recent months the broad-based decline in inflationary pressures has slowed, indicating persistent price risks in the economy. In March 2026, annual inflation fell to 7.1%, remaining within projected ranges. Core inflation stood at 5.7% over the same period, reflecting the gradual fading of the high base effect from the previous year.

Economic activity accelerated in the first quarter of 2026, with gross domestic product growing by 8.7% in real terms. Growth was driven by expansion in the services sector, construction, and trade, which, according to the Central Bank, indicates that domestic demand remains the dominant growth factor.

The regulator also noted that investment activity, including sustained inflows of foreign direct investment, is expected to support economic growth in the coming quarters. As a result, the GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised upward to 7–7.5%.

The external environment remains highly uncertain. Rising geopolitical tensions are increasing risks of higher global prices for oil and food, as well as higher logistics costs, which may add inflationary pressure through import channels.

At the same time, supporting factors include the strengthening of currencies of key trading partners, high gold prices, and growing export revenues and remittances, which help maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.

The Central Bank emphasized that positive real interest rates continue to encourage savings and support moderate credit growth. Inflation expectations, although declining, remain above target levels.

The regulator reiterated its readiness to maintain a tight monetary policy stance and tighten it further if necessary to achieve the 5% inflation target. The next policy meeting is scheduled for  17 June 2026.