The economic recovery of the major trading partners as well as the government’s active industrial policies, improved export performance and higher investment inflows are expected to be major drivers of economic growth. International prices for Uzbekistan’s major export commodities (gold, copper, cotton and oil) look favorable in 2010 and 2011.

According to ADB forecast, inflation in Uzbekistan will make up 9.3% in 2010 and 9% in 2011. Current account balance will comprise 13% to GDP in 2010 and 14% next year.

Despite the global recession and economic contraction among its major trading partners, Uzbekistan continued its strong economic performance in 2009 with GDP growth of 8.1%. The economy was affected by the recession through weaker external demand and lower remittance inflows.

The government responded to the recession early with a large-scale anticrisis program for 2009–2012, which was adopted at end-2008. Measures included substantial public infrastructure investment, tax preferences to exporting industries and small and medium-sized enterprises, increases in public sector wages, and recapitalization of commercial banks.

The program was financed through the government budget, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and the Fund for Reconstruction and Development (FRD), a sovereign wealth management fund established in 2006. Healthy budget revenues and good export performance of gold and natural gas supported the program’s implementation.