As reported earlier, the ADB earlier forecasted that economy of Uzbekistan will grow by 8.4% in 2012.

Industry and services are expected to be the major contributors to economic growth. Industrial output will be supported by higher domestic lending and foreign investment, while services will be driven by higher domestic demand, especially from the public sector. Higher vegetable and fruit output should boost agriculture relative to 2011.

The ADB forecasted that inflation rate in Uzbekistan will be at 9.5% in 2012 and 9% in 2013. Earlier, the bank forecasted that inflation will be at 9.5% level in 2012.

The current account surplus is forecast to decrease to 7.5% of GDP in 2012 and 6.0% of GDP in 2013, the bank’s report said.

Import growth is forecast to slow to 8.3% in 2012 and 2.8% in 2013, despite infrastructure spending and the industrial modernization program, because of the projected moderation in imported food prices and tighter import controls, particularly on imported consumer goods. The bank expects that exports of Uzbekistan will increase by 9% this year and fell to -0.8% in 2013.

Gross international reserves are forecast to increase further in 2012 and 2013 (to US$23 billion and US$25 billion respectively), according to ADB estimates, reflecting continuing current account surpluses and net capital inflows.

Reflecting increasing foreign borrowing for industrial modernization and infrastructure development, external debt is forecast to reach 20.2% of GDP and end-2012 and 22.8% a year later.