Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The decline of the Uzbek soum continues to accelerate. As of 26 December, the exchange rate against the US dollar reached 12,923 soums. Over the past week, the soum fell by another 0.41%, compared to a 0.11% drop the previous week.

December has proven to be a stressful month for the soum due to external factors, including the trajectory of the Russian ruble, the behavior of the US dollar on the global currency market, and geopolitical and trade issues.

Interestingly, there is currently no positive correlation between the soum and the ruble, although previous complications for Russia have been fully reflected in the soum’s position.

Uzbekistan’s domestic economic situation remains stable, with GDP growth estimated at 6.8-7.2% for the year. Inflation increased to 8.8-9.0%, higher than in 2023 due to global logistics, interest rate, and market issues.

Specifically, the soum has depreciated by an average of 4.5% against the US dollar since the beginning of the year. The first half of the year saw a neutral trend, with the soum strengthening in the summer, followed by a gradual decline starting in the fall. This trend intensified in December. The rate of depreciation is considered moderate.

Over the next week, the USD/UZS exchange rate is expected to remain within the range of 12,900–12,965 soums.

Anna Bodrova, Analyst at Alpari.