Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Uzbek soum has started 2025 with a slight decline against the US dollar. As of 16 January, the US dollar is trading at 12,950 soums.

Over the past three weeks, the soum has depreciated by 0.20%. While this is a relatively modest rate of decline, it reflects a continuation of the earlier trend.

In 2024, the soum depreciated by 4% against the dollar.

Currently, the following factors are influencing the soum’s exchange rate:

The trajectory of the Russian ruble, which has a certain degree of correlation with the soum, albeit not always a clear one.

The structure of Uzbekistan’s trade and economic balance.

Inflation dynamics within the country.

Over the course of the year, the normalization of global monetary policy is expected to positively impact the soum. However, this phase of normalization is likely to begin in one to two quarters on average.

In the short term, the USD/UZS pair is expected to remain within the range of 12,950 to 13,050 soums.

Anna Bodrova, Analyst at Alpari