Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- The initial moratorium in the amount of US$7.8 million, adopted in April 2020, expires on 13 October this year. The amount of the second tranche to Tajikistan is US$5.2 million.

As noted in the corresponding IMF report, the extension of the moratorium is associated with the difficult economic situation in this country. The decline in purchasing power and the disruption of production chains have seriously affected the economic activity of the population. In particular, the remittances of migrants decreased by 15%.

In 2019, the volume of remittances to the country amounted to US$2.6 billion (about 30% of GDP).

Real GDP growth in 2020 is projected at 1%, which is well below the pre-pandemic forecast of 4.8%. Growth is expected to recover in 2021 and reach 6%. There is also a deterioration in foreign trade: exports excluding gold decreased by more than 20%. Compared to the pre-pandemic baseline scenario, the budget deficit is expected to widen by 1.7 percentage points, reaching 6% of GDP (US$450-500 million).

According to the report, thanks to the extension of the grace period for servicing the IMF’s debt, Tajikistan was able to allocate an additional 4% of GDP to current spending in health care and to support entrepreneurship. The IMF plans to approve a moratorium on loans to Tajikistan in the amount of US$26 million until 2022.

Commenting on the extension of the terms of repayment of IMF loans, experts are skeptical about its impact on improving the socio-economic situation in Tajikistan. In particular, it is stated that the republic’s external debt is estimated at US$2.9 billion (35.8% of the country’s GDP). By the end of the year, Dushanbe should allocate US$220 million for debt payments.

The gold and foreign exchange reserves of Tajikistan in the amount of US$1.4 billion allow covering 5.3 months of imports of goods and services.

Thus, observers believe that Dushanbe will have to continue negotiations with international financial institutions to attract additional funds.