Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — By 15 August, the Uzbek soum has regained stability against the US dollar, reaching 12,610 soums. Over the past week, the soums appreciated by 0.31%, after declining by nearly half a percent against the USD the previous week.

The volatility of the soums appears moderate, which could be partly attributed to seasonal factors.

Currently, the soums lacks strong support from the Russian ruble.

The state of Uzbekistan’s foreign trade balance might exert strategic and fundamental pressure on the soums. Domestically, gold and foreign exchange reserves increased by US$1.06 billion in July, reaching a record US$37.4 billion. This is a forward-looking and productive strategy.

The state budget deficit in Uzbekistan is gradually stabilizing. Over the first seven months of 2024, the deficit amounted to US$2.88 billion (36.4 trillion soums). Specifically, in July, the growth rate of the deficit slowed down as revenues began to exceed expenses. This is a very positive sign.

Overall, the position of the soums appears adequate given the current circumstances.

Next week, the USD/UZS pair is likely to remain within the range of 12,520-12,650 soums.

Anna Bodrova, Analyst at Alpari