Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Due to the intensive dynamics of growth in the number of new patients with coronavirus, the epidemiological situation in India remains extremely unstable and unpredictable.

According to the data, over the past day in the country, the coronavirus was found in more than 70 thousand people. As a result, the total number of only registered infected people in India exceeded 3.1 million people, and the death toll - about 58 thousand people.

This intense dynamics of the spread of the disease makes India the third largest "epicenter of the virus" in the world after the United States and Brazil. At the same time, the country came out on top in the world "anti-rating" in terms of the daily increase in diagnosed cases of COVID-19.

Given such a "sharp jump" in the number of patients with coronavirus, WHO experts fear that India may soon rank first among these countries.

Despite the extremely negative development of the situation, the Ministry of Health of India believes that "the epidemic is under control, indicating a rapid increase in the number of recovered patients." According to the ministry, the proportion of those cured in the country has reached about 75% of the total number of cases. This indicator has shown a steady growth since the end of July this year, when it was 62.6%.

The Indian leadership, optimistically assessing the emerging epidemiological situation in the country, considers it inexpedient to reintroduce general quarantine.

"Threatening" statistics coming from the central and southern regions did not prevent the authorities from deciding to open hotels, shopping centers and markets in the Indian capital. The resumption of their work after a five-month hiatus became possible after the New Delhi metropolitan area emerged from the "red zone".

However, the need to continue the fight against coronavirus remains a central topic on the domestic agenda. Prime Minister N. Modi, in his recent address to the nation, called the victory over the epidemic one of the main priorities of his government.

He also assured the nation that India is among the leaders in the global race for COVID-19 cure. According to him, “three vaccines are at different stages of testing. When scientists give the go-ahead, the country will be ready to produce an effective vaccine that will reach every Indian in the shortest possible time.

At the same time, in the face of continued high risk of infection in New Delhi, they continue to give preference to maintaining a strict "mask regime" and strict contact tracing.

You need to be wearing a mask all the time - even in a private car, and in order to go to shopping centers, you need to download the Aarogya setu app, which shows whether there are people with coronavirus around you and at what distance.

At the same time, strict sanitary safety rules are maintained. So, if doctors identified a person with COVID-19 in an apartment building, then doctors completely close the doors of all entrances for two to three weeks.

Due to overcrowding in hospitals, many other institutions continue to adapt for the treatment of citizens with coronavirus.

For this purpose, gyms, schools and student dormitories are being intensively refurbished.

Commenting on the epidemiological situation in India, observers of most publications (Times, DW, Bloomberg) note the likelihood of discrepancies between official statistics and the "real state of affairs" and consider India the "absolute leader" in terms of the scale of the epidemic in the world.

In their opinion, India, which was initially considered the "ideal environment" for the spread of the virus, "unwittingly" follows the path of developing "herd immunity." This conclusion is pushed by the analysis of 270 thousand tests for antibodies to COVID-19, conducted by the Indian laboratory Thyrocare Laboratories in 600 cities over the past 7 weeks.

The test results showed the presence of antibodies to coronavirus in 26% of people, which suggests that these patients have already encountered the disease. In some densely populated areas of Pune, antibodies were detected in 51.5% of the population, in Mumbai - in 27% of residents, and in New Delhi - in 30%.

Another confirmation of this hypothesis, according to Figaro, is the slowdown in the growth of the number of new cases of the disease in large Indian cities. Such facts have prompted a number of epidemiologists to suggest that India is rapidly moving towards "mass immunity."

So, if this trend persists by the end of this year. antibodies to infection will appear in 40% of the population.

Moreover, according to Forbes, the country has a disproportionately large (93.5%) share of the population under 65, which is less at risk of serious illness and death due to coronavirus.

The opposite opinion is expressed by WHO epidemiologists. According to them, "herd immunity" will not help India defeat the epidemic: the Indian government needs to look for additional measures to limit the spread of the virus.

Experts interviewed by the Guardian adhere to a similar point of view. According to them, the limited level of testing in India has led to an uncontrolled spread of the epidemic in rural areas, whose residents can become "hidden carriers of the virus."

In addition, it is likely that the pandemic’s impact on rural India will be very different from the situation in large cities, where 60% of hospitals and 80% of doctors are located.

As a result, about 670 million people living in rural areas can cover an "invisible catastrophe" that can lead to the death of many people who do not have access to medical care.

In the emerging epidemiological situation in India, most publications (Bild, New York Times) call the early development of an effective vaccine the only "lifeline" that can lead the country out of the growing crisis.

This point of view is also shared by the Indian authorities, who regard "mass vaccination" as the only reasonable way to finally solve the problem. This explains the government’s acceleration in the development of a vaccine in India.

In this vein, the Times of India newspaper, with reference to the country’s Ministry of Health, reports that the first results of tests of the Indian vaccine - COVAXIN - in humans show encouraging results. Researchers hope to develop a vaccine against the virus in the country by the end of this year.

In general, due to the intense pace of the spread of the virus and the rapid destabilization of the epidemiological situation, India is entering the "front line" of the global fight against the pandemic. At the same time, the successful overcoming of the epidemic and the timing of the possible start of vaccination of the population are becoming the main issue of the current agenda for the government of N. Modi.