Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Experts from the Institute of Macroeconomic and Regional Research (IMRI) assessed CO2 emissions in Uzbekistan and developed 3 scenarios for achieving carbon neutrality in the country: optimistic, basic and pessimistic.

At the same time, the scenarios took into account both the current volume of CO2 emissions and their potential growth due to population growth and related services and industries.

Each of the developed scenarios assumes different rates of annual reduction in CO2 emissions, and also takes into account the length of the possible event horizon (the longer the period, the greater the impact of demographic growth and related factors). Thus, within each scenario the following target parameters were identified:

1. Optimistic scenario (2050) – annual reduction in CO2 emissions will be 5.9 million tons.

2. Baseline scenario (2060) – annual CO2 reduction will be 4.8 million tons.

3. Pessimistic scenario (2070) – the annual reduction of CO2 will be 4.2 million tons.

Taking into account these criteria, the base scenario was determined to be optimal for Uzbekistan, which involves achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. This scenario is based on a balanced policy and a smooth process of green transformation of the country, and also assumes an annual reduction in CO2 emissions by 4.8 million tons (3.1 million tons net reduction and 1.7 million tons additional demand). This approach will allow Uzbekistan to develop at a moderate pace, maintaining a balance between the processes of green transformation of the economy and the implementation of policies to support the population and enterprises.

Also, the basic scenario, like other scenarios, is based on framework conditions - key strategic documents adopted in the country (for example, the Program for the transition to a “green” economy and ensuring “green” growth in the Republic of Uzbekistan until 2030) and the targets laid down in them guidelines, as well as plans and forecasts previously developed by other departments to achieve carbon neutrality.

In addition, the baseline scenario is the most realistic and is in line with similar indicators for a number of other countries. Thus, many countries have set a target date of 2050-2060 for achieving carbon neutrality (for example, the UK, Japan, South Korea, China and Kazakhstan).