Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) – On 31 July, a meeting was held at the Center for Economic Research and Reforms to discuss a study conducted by the State Statistics Committee in collaboration with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The primary goal of this study was to evaluate the volume of the unobserved economy in Uzbekistan and examine its impact on other macroeconomic indicators.

The international round table titled “Results of the Statistical Assessment of the Informal and Shadow Economy in Uzbekistan” was organized in Tashkent to review the findings of the analysis carried out during a technical mission by the IMF and World Bank (WB).

The event was organized by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERRR) together with the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan.

The meeting was attended by experts from CERR, the State Statistics Committee, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Central Bank, the Tax Committee, as well as representatives from ministries and departments, think tanks, universities, international organizations, public figures, and the media.

Opening the event, CERR Director Obid Hakimov informed participants about reforms aimed at improving the economic situation in Uzbekistan. He highlighted the importance of the statistical assessment of the informal and shadow economy as a tool for identifying hidden reserves and developing effective state policies.

“These studies will not only help understand the current state of the economy but also create conditions for the legalization and integration of informal sectors into the official economy,” emphasized the CERR Director. He encouraged participants to actively discuss the topics presented and share their opinions to jointly develop strategies that promote sustainable economic growth and social justice.

Director of the State Statistics Committee Bahodir Begalov then addressed the participants, emphasizing the significance of statistical data for forming effective economic policies and sustainable development. He noted that the leadership of the country is giving substantial attention to the quality and standards of data collection, as well as the support from international organizations assisting in this process.

Experts presented data on the scale of the informal economy and discussed changes in the sectoral structure of the country’s economy as a result of recalculations that take into account informal and shadow sectors.

Koba Gwennetadze, the IMF Resident Representative in Uzbekistan, greeted the participants, noting that “Uzbekistan is in the process of transforming its economy towards a market-oriented one, and it is a long journey. We provide support to our Uzbek colleagues in various areas of statistical counting and analysis. The technical assistance from IMF experts is of interest to us as it allows access to data on the current state of statistics in the country. From this, we will see the dynamics of economic development.”

Levan Gogoberishvili, IMF Expert on Real Sector Statistics, presented a brief summary of the findings from the IMF’s technical assistance missions in national accounts statistics via a video message. He stressed the need to revise national accounts considering the unobserved economy, highlighting the importance of comprehensive coverage of statistical data for a more accurate representation of the economy’s state.

Gogoberishvili noted that the previous comprehensive revision occurred in 2019, focusing mainly on agricultural data. The 2024 revision will address unobserved economy estimates in service sectors such as construction, hotels and restaurants, healthcare, education, and others. The adjustment is expected to increase the nominal GDP level by approximately 10-12 percent, with a maximum change in real GDP growth rates up to 0.8 percentage points. “Therefore, the publication of these data will significantly improve the overall quality of national accounts,” emphasized Gogoberishvili.

He also reminded that the next comprehensive revision of national accounts time series is scheduled for 2029.

During the round table, Abrolali Mamadjanov, Head of the State Statistics Committee, presented the results of calculations related to the statistical assessment of the informal and shadow economy in macroeconomic indicators. He noted that “the studies show that integrating the informal sector into the official economy requires thorough analysis and accurate data, which will enable more effective economic planning and informed decision-making.”

The event discussed the results of calculations on the volume of the informal and shadow economy and its impact on macroeconomic indicators. The assessment was based on results from sample statistical observations and administrative data.

The study covered 14 regions across the republic, examining over 7,000 households in 165 districts of Uzbekistan regarding expenses on transportation, housing, food, culture, education, and healthcare, as well as construction and industry.

The collected data allowed for an assessment of the informal and shadow economy’s volume and its impact on GDP by economic sectors and regions from 2017 to 2023, revealing the scale of the unobserved economy and its influence on overall economic activity.

As a result of the statistical observations and calculations, the coverage of macroeconomic indicators such as GDP and GDP per capita was improved, aligning them with international methodologies.

According to the assessment results, Uzbekistan’s nominal GDP in 2023 increased by 125.6 trillion soums (10.7 billion USD) to 1,192.2 trillion soums (101.6 billion USD).

Experts noted that aligning data with international standards (IMF or WB methodology) ensures comparability with other countries, allowing for more precise economic analysis and international comparisons.

The round table served as an important platform for exchanging opinions and developing strategies for legalizing the informal economy, which can significantly impact macroeconomic indicators, including GDP.

Participants emphasized the need for further cooperation between government bodies, international organizations, and research institutions to create effective policies that facilitate the integration of informal sectors into the official economy. This collaboration will be crucial in achieving sustainable economic growth and improving the living standards of Uzbekistan’s citizens.