Consolidated CPI for the month in Uzbekistan amounted to 0.5% in August
Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- In August 2023, the consolidated CPI for the month in Uzbekistan amounted to 0.5%, by December 2022 – 3.8%. The average monthly increase in the CPI for January-August of the current year reached 0.5%.
In annual terms (against August of the previous year), the consolidated CPI was fixed at 109.0%.
In August 2023, the CPI for goods for the month amounted to 100.5%, services – 100.7%. Since the beginning of the current year, this indicator for goods has reached 103.8%, services – 104.1%. In annual terms, it was formed, respectively, at the levels of 109.1% and 108.5%.
According to the approved methodology, price registration is carried out monthly from the 10th to the 20th. The data collection is organized in such a way that the price registration in this time period for each position is carried out once, and the interval between registrations for adjacent periods is one calendar month. When calculating the CPI, the influence of assortment and territorial shifts is excluded in order to identify only inflationary factors.
The short-term CPI for food products in August of this year amounted to 100.6%, non-food products – 100.4%, paid services – 100.7%. CPI by December last year for food products was fixed at 103.7%, non-food products – 103.8%, paid services – 104.1%. CPI in annual terms for food and non-food products was at the level of 110.6% and 107.3%, for services it reached 108.5%.
Over 10 000 outlets and paid services are surveyed every month as part of monitoring changes in consumer prices, and more than 120 000 price quotations are recorded.
The dynamics of the short-term CPI for food products during January-August 2023 was influenced by the seasonality factor. Traditionally, for June and July, the shortterm CPI for food products was below 100.0%, while in August its increase was recorded again.
The annual CPI for food products during the eight months of this year fell from 115.4% in January to 110.6% in August. At the same time, this indicator reached its minimum in June (110.5%).
The nature of changes in the shortterm CPI for non-food goods and services for the population was directed towards a gradual increase without sharp fluctuations (the maximum CPI for the month reached 100.7%, the minimum – 100.2- 100.3%).
Excluding changes in prices for fruits and vegetables, the short-term consolidated CPI for August 2023 was 100.5%. By the level of December 2022, this indicator is fixed at around 104.2%, August 2022 - 108.8%.
The share of the contribution of price changes for food products to the growth of the short-term consolidated CPI for August 2023 accounted for 44.5%, non-food products – 25.9%, services – 29.6% of the total contribution of observed goods and services.
According to calculations, the share of food products accounted for about 41.1% of the total contribution of the three main groups to the growth of the consolidated CPI by December 2022 (against 51.3% a year earlier). The contribution of price changes for services is still the smallest among the three main groups - its share was 24.5%.
The increase in the consolidated CPI in annual terms is slightly more than half associated with an increase in food prices (50.1%).
In August 2023, the range of short-term CPI by sections ranged from 100.0% (section X. "Educational services") to 101.5% (section VII. "Transport").
With the exception of sections II. “Alcoholic drinks, tobacco products”, IV “Housing services, water, electricity, gas and other fuels” and XI. “Restaurants and hotel services”, CPI in all other sections for August 2023 was lower than the same indicator of the previous year.
The lowest annual CPI in August 2023 was recorded for goods and services in the field of information and communications (99.3%), the highest - for restaurant and hotel services (124.8%).
The range of fluctuations of the short-term CPI for August 2023 in the context of the groups of section I "Food and non-alcoholic beverages" ranged from 98.5% to 103.7%.
Short-term CPI below 100.0% for the month was recorded in the groups "Fruits and nuts" (98.5%), "Oils and fats" (99.0%), "Cereals" (99.8 %). At the same time, the short-term CPI for flour was 97.8%, sunflower oil – 98.1%, semolina and cottonseed oil – 98.9%, vermicelli – 99.3%, butter – 99.7%.
The most significant price increases were noted among vegetables, tubers and legumes, which is largely due to the seasonal factor.
The average price level for fat and oil products, as well as for vegetables, tubers and legumes in August of this year was still lower than at the end of 2022. The CPI for the “Oils and Fats” group for August 2023 amounted to 91.6%, for the “Vegetables, tubers and legumes” group it reached 92.0%.
Significantly lower than in January-August 2022 was the CPI value for cereals and cereals (104.4% versus 124.3%), as well as for sugar, confectionery and desserts (121.6% versus 106.7%
CPI in annual terms for August 2023 was significantly lower than the same indicator for August 2022 in the groups "Cereals" (110.3% vs. 130.1%, or -19.8 points), "Oils and fats" (91.7% vs. 114.0%, or -22.3 points) and Sugar, confectionery and desserts (109.3% vs. 129.5%, or -20.2 points).
Among the groups of section I, the average price level in the Oils and Fats group remained lower than in August last year.
In August of this year, there was a decrease in prices for a number of fresh fruits and vegetables. The range of shortterm CPI for goods with falling prices ranged from 67.5% (tomatoes) to 97.7% (pears). Pumpkin for a month on average in the republic added in price a little less than 2000 soums per kg, becoming a fruit and vegetable product with the largest short-term price index.
The limiting factor for the short-term CPI in August this year was the decline in prices for fruits and nuts, oils and fats, cereals and cereals (total contribution -0.11 p.p.). The inflationary contribution for the short-term indicator from such groups as meat products, milk, dairy products and eggs, vegetables, tubers and legumes reached +0.32 p.p.
The main downward impact on the CPI for January-August 2023 was the decrease in prices in the groups of vegetables, tubers and legumes, as well as oils and fats (-0.59 p.p.). Among the groups with the greatest impact on growth, meat products, cereals and cereal products, fruits and nuts stood out (+1.37 p.p.). The most significant contribution to the growth of the annual consolidated CPI was made by changes in prices for meat products (+1.14 p.p.), and to the decrease - for oils and fats (-0.24 p.p.).
In August this year fluctuations in the short-term CPI in Section II. “Alcoholic beverages, tobacco products” ranged from 100.3% (other tobacco products) to 101.3% (wine).
The range of short-term CPI in August this year in section III. “Clothes and footwear” ranged from 99.1% (men’s slippers) to 101.2% (tailoring).
In August of this year, in three regions of the republic (Surkhandarya, Tashkent and Kashkadarya regions), an increase in tariffs for cold water supply and sewerage services was recorded. Taking into account the share of these regions in the structure of the total expenditures of the population on the consumption of these services, the CPI for cold water supply and sewerage on average in the republic for the month amounted to 115.6%.
The range of short-term CPI fluctuations for the main types of materials for maintenance and repair of housing ranged from 98.4% (pipes, squeegees and metal bends) to 100.6% (varnish of all types).
Range of fluctuations in the short-term CPI for goods in section VI. "Health", in August of this year, ranged from 99.3% (anti-inflammatory drugs) to 101.8% (dental services).
In addition, the CPI for the month below the 100.0% mark was recorded for syringes (99.4%), medical masks and gloves (99.5%), medical diagnostic products and immunization services (99.6%).
In August 2023, gasoline prices increased in all regions. CPI per month for this type of fuel per month on average in the republic amounted to 104.2%. In the regional context, fluctuations in the CPI for gasoline ranged from 103.1-106.6%. The short-term CPI for gas fuel for vehicles in August of this year amounted to 103.0%, including propane – 105.2%, methane – 102.4%. The short-term CPI for air passenger transport services in August this year was fixed at 102.1%. CPI for railway passenger transport services by July 2023 amounted to 100.6%.
The short-term CPI for information and communication equipment in August this year was fixed at 100.0%. At the same time, the change in prices for goods in this group was uneven. The fluctuation range of the short-term CPI for goods included in the group in August of this year ranged from 99.7% (mobile telephone equipment) to 100.7% (computers and tablets).
Among the services included in this group, price changes during August were recorded only for complex telecommunications services, where the short-term CPI amounted to 99.9%, services for the repair of information and communication equipment, where this figure reached 102.6%.
During August 2023, a price decrease of 0.2-1.9% was noted for certain types of stationery, books and flowers. The most significant value of the CPI was recorded on covers for notebooks and documents (102.4%).
The level of prices for the services of state preschool educational institutions, as well as in the field of higher education, did not change in August this year. During the month, there was a slight decrease in prices for tutoring services, as well as tuition fees for educational courses.
In a number of regions, an increase in prices for food and beverage services was recorded in the range of 0.3-5.3%. In three regions of the country there was an increase in prices for hotel services.
Since 2020, the situation in the market of observable insurance services has maintained price stability. Among financial services, price changes in August of this year were noted for money transfer services through banks (104.1%), as well as for services of banking institutions (101.6%).
In August this year, the range of short-term CPI for household goods and services ranged from 100.0% (baby diapers) to 101.5% (hair dryers). The level of short-term CPI in the group "Other personal items" in August of this year ranged from 100.3% (watches) to 101.7% (school bags, including briefcases, satchels, backpacks). OTHER PERSONAL ITEMS OTHER SERVICES Among other services in August of this year, the CPI above the mark of 100.0% was formed for funeral services (104.4%), below - for photocopying services (99.5%).
The most significant contribution to the growth of the short-term composite indicator in August 2023 was made by price changes for food and non-alcoholic beverages, which accounted for about 40.7% of the total impact. Changes in consumer prices and tariffs in the transport sector, as well as for housing and communal services, in total increased the consolidated CPI for the month by 0.19 p.p.(35.2% of the total impact).
Slightly more than a third of the total increase in the consolidated CPI by December 2022 (34.4%) was provided by price changes for food and non-alcoholic beverages. Their contribution reached 1.32 p.p. with a total increase of 3.84 p.p. A significant contribution was also made by price changes in the "Transport" and "Health" sections. In total, they ensured an increase in the consolidated CPI by December 2022 by 0.88 p.p., or 22.9% of the total contribution. The limiting factor was the decline in prices in the "Information and Communications" section, as a result of which the consolidated CPI fell by 0.01 p.p.
About 44.5% of the total increase in the consolidated CPI by August 2022 is due to price changes for food and non-alcoholic beverages. Their contribution amounted to 3.99 p.p. The share of the contribution of price increases in the healthcare sector accounted for 11.0%, transport – 8.4% of the total impact. As in the case of the CPI for January-August of the current year, the lowering factor for the annual CPI was the decline in prices for communication services, which resulted in a decrease in the indicator by 0.02 p.p..