Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- As the details of the Karabakh deal are being clarified, the clause on a new Nakhchivan corridor through the territory of Armenia has caused great controversy.

The emergence of this corridor is a major breakthrough for Turkey, as it will allow the country to consolidate its influence in the Caspian Sea and, possibly, in the longer term, in Central Asia. But it will take decades to realize this scenario, and even then, Turkey’s influence cannot be as great as the influence of China or Russia, the two main forces in the region.

Armenia guarantees the opening of a corridor through its territory so that Azerbaijan can transport goods to Nakhchivan. This limits Tehran’s influence on Baku.

However, according to Iranian experts, Iran will remain a favorable route for trade. The new corridor is likely to serve the local traffic between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, they believe.

Another country concerned about the emergence of a new corridor is Georgia. Various pipelines, roads and a major railway pass through the country from Azerbaijan to Turkey.

The general consensus is that in the short and medium term, no changes in transport patterns in the region are likely to occur. Even in the long term, many still believe that Baku and Ankara will not trade the already built and functioning rail and pipeline infrastructure that runs through Georgia for an alternative to Nakhchivan. Perhaps the corridor will serve to provide local connections and limited trade.

In addition, abandoning this transit route will undermine the effectiveness of the South Caucasus transport and energy corridor. This makes the attractiveness of the Nakhchivan corridor very limited.

Perhaps the region will see a growing relationship between the exclave and Turkish territory. The emergence of a large corridor through Nakhchivan is likely to happen if, at the very least, there is a significant improvement in relations between Turkey and Armenia.