Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Expected inflation among Uzbekistan’s residents has been declining for the third consecutive month, according to data from the Central Bank.

Results of the July survey show that the average forecast for price growth over the next 12 months stood at 12.9%, 0.3 percentage points lower than in June. The median value decreased by 0.1 points, reaching 10.9%.

Tashkent leads in inflation expectations, with the forecast rising to 16%. It is followed by the Fergana region at 13.8% and Kashkadarya at 13.2%. The most restrained forecasts were recorded in Bukhara (11.3%), Jizzakh (11.4%), and Syrdarya (11.9%) regions.

By profession, the highest expectations were among workers in catering — 14.5%, education — 14%, and healthcare — 13.5%. The most moderate forecasts came from students (11.5%), trade representatives (11.6%), and the transport sector (12.1%).

Among income groups, the highest expectations were shown by citizens earning over 15 million soums per month — 15.7%. They were followed by those earning between 7 and 10 million soums — 13.9%. Respondents with incomes below 3 million soums projected inflation not exceeding 12%.

The main factor influencing expectations remains the rise in utility tariffs, cited by 51% of respondents. This was followed by higher fuel prices (45%) and increases in wages and benefits (34%). The share of respondents noting the impact of exchange rate fluctuations rose to 30%.

In the business sector, after a decrease in June, expectations slightly increased again: the average indicator reached 12.1% (+0.3%), while the median value rose to 10.8% (+0.5%).

By region, in the business sector, Tashkent region ranked first in forecasted price growth at 13.8%, ahead of Samarkand (13.3%) as well as Tashkent and Navoi (13.1% each). The lowest forecasts were given by entrepreneurs in Fergana (10.6%) and Andijan (11%).

As among the general population, record inflation expectations in business were observed in the restaurant sector — 14.3%. Above-average expectations were seen in construction (14.1%) and creative services (13.7%). The lowest forecasts were given by craftsmen (10.7%), tourism representatives (11.1%), and healthcare workers (11.2%).

Among the factors shaping expectations, the top positions remain the rise in utility tariffs (47%) and energy prices (42%).

The share of respondents noting the impact of rising wages increased slightly (34%), while the influence of transport expenses fell to 31%.