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World 31/10/2020 How will the US presidential election affect the oil market?
How will the US presidential election affect the oil market?

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Will Donald Trump, a supporter of energy in its current form, that is, based on the extraction of fossil fuels, remain president, or will Joe Biden come to power, promising to pay much more attention to renewable energy sources?, Expert.ru (Russia) asks.

In the energy program of Democrat Joe Biden:

1) restoration of the nuclear deal with Iran;

2) zeroing harmful emissions into the atmosphere by 2050 using a two-trillion program for the development of renewable energy sources;

3) a ban on shale hydrocarbon production in federal lands.

Immediately after the restoration of the nuclear deal on Iran, 2-3 million barrels of Iranian oil per day will appear on the market. Oil prices will plummet, but the market should recover quickly and supply will fall and demand will rise. Joe Biden’s ban on drilling on federal lands will reduce oil production by 3% in the United States, which will lead to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand and prices.

In the energy program of Republican Donald Trump:

1) withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement;

2) support for the deregulation of the oil, gas and coal industries;

3) expansion and deepening of ties with Saudi Arabia. In the event that D. Trump remains in power for another four years, everything will remain as it is now. This scenario will ensure the maintenance of the status quo in the US energy sector.

The re-closure of the world’s first economy can play a particularly important role in pricing, including the oil sector. Donald Trump is adamant about the new closure, while Joe Biden intends to act according to the situation, i.e. if the situation with the pandemic worsens, he is ready to go on toughening restrictive measures.

The Financial Times notes that US presidents, even as the most powerful people on the planet, cannot control oil prices. Therefore, it is especially difficult to make forecasts for oil prices after 3 November 2020.

 

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