Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The international rating agency Fitch has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025, reducing it from 2.6% (December estimate) to 2.3%. According to the agency, global GDP in 2026 is expected to grow by only 2.2%.

In the United States, the economy is now projected to expand by 1.7% in 2025, down from the previous forecast of 2.1%. Growth is expected to slow further to 1.5% in 2026, compared to the earlier projection of 1.7%.

The Fitch report highlights that the new U.S. administration has triggered a global trade war, which will slow both global and American economic growth. This shift will also increase inflationary risks in the U.S. and delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Despite fiscal easing in China and Germany aimed at offsetting the negative impact of higher U.S. import tariffs, the Eurozone economy is expected to underperform compared to December forecasts. Meanwhile, Mexico and Canada, both closely tied to U.S. trade, may enter a technical recession.

According to Fitch, the average effective U.S. import tariff (ETR) has already risen to 8.5% in 2025, compared to 2.3% in 2024. Further increases are expected: 15% for imports from Europe, Canada, Mexico, and other countries and 35% for imports from China.

As a result, the overall U.S. ETR is projected to reach 18% in 2025, marking a 90-year high, before slightly easing to 16% in 2026.

The rise in trade barriers is expected to increase consumer prices in the U.S., reduce real incomes, and raise business costs. Uncertainty in global trade will also dampen business sentiment.

Fitch estimates that stricter tariff policies will reduce GDP growth in the U.S., China, and Europe by approximately 1 percentage point by 2026, while also pushing U.S. inflation higher. As a result, the Federal Reserve is likely to delay its next rate cut until Q4 2025 and implement three rate reductions in 2026 amid a slowdown in economic activity.