Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Experts from the Institute for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research (IPMI) studied the factors affecting the production of "green" electricity using river water resources in Uzbekistan in the face of climate change.

At present, the total annual power generation capacity in the Republic of Uzbekistan is 12.9 GW, of which 2,050 MW or 15.8 percent are hydroelectric power plants.

A number of factors (average annual water inflow, water consumption in diversion channels, maximum and minimum temperatures, natural precipitation) play an important role in the generation of electricity using hydroelectric power plants.

Within the framework of this study, a correlation-regression analysis was carried out using the example of the Urta-Chirchik HPPs cascade, in order to determine important factors for reliable planning of stable power generation at HPPs.

The results of the IPMI study showed that when predicting electricity generation, compared with other factors, the average annual water inflow is the most important indicator. That is, more accurate planning of electricity generation volumes will directly depend on the water inflow factor.

As a result, using the model equation, it was determined that with an increase by one accounting unit of the average annual water flow in the Chirchik River (with the ceteris paribus hypothesis), electricity generation will increase by 327.6 units of the corresponding indicator. That is, if the water inflow conditionally approaches the annual rate of 10 billion m3, then it can be predicted that the volume of electricity generation by the Urta-Chirchik HPP cascade will be 4.4 billion kWh. That is, planning the necessary energy resources by sectors of the economy directly depends on the possibilities and potential for predicting the volume of water inflow. In this direction, further study of the world’s best practices will make it possible to make forecasts more accurate and make optimal decisions related to resource provision.

According to the development strategy of New Uzbekistan, by 2026 the volume of renewable energy sources in Uzbekistan is planned to be increased to 10,920 MW, including hydroelectric power plants up to 2,920 MW. At the same time, it is planned to increase the share of “green” electricity production in our country to 25 percent.

To achieve these targets, existing hydroelectric power plants are being modernized in our country, and a scheme has been approved for attracting private investors by territories to finance 200 business projects for the construction of micro hydropower plants with a capacity of up to 5 MW each.

The IPMI model developed during the study determined that water inflow is the most important influencing factor in predicting electricity generation in the Urta-Chirchik HPP cascade compared to factors such as diversion channel flow, temperature and precipitation. That is, in order to increase the production of electricity in our country and achieve the targets for the transition to "green" standards, one of the most important tasks will be the development of the most advanced technological solutions and the use of modern methods that refine the forecast of water inflow.