Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- The consumer confidence index of Uzbek citizens continued to grow in September and amounted to 139.1 points according to a study by Freedom Finance Global, in which 3,600 respondents took part.

The largest increase can be seen in the assessment of changes in personal financial situation, which increased by 4.4 points. If in August the share of those who noted an improvement in this component was 54.7%, then in September the figure increased to 57.5. The assessment of financial situation increased most strongly in Andijan and Bukhara regions, where this factor was noted by 65% of respondents. The region where people see the least improvement is the Syrdarya region: the share of such informants there is 47%.

Also, two subindices increased by 2.4 points: expectations for personal financial situation and the economic situation in the country within 12 months. The majority is optimistic about the future - 70.9% of Uzbek citizens expect an improvement in their material well-being, which is slightly higher than the result of 70% in August.

Regionally, the differences in results also decreased significantly. The leaders were Fergana and Andijan regions, where 76% of people expect an improvement in their financial situation within a year. The lowest results were shown by respondents from the Republic of Karakalpakstan, where the share of optimists was 65%.

“The inverse correlation of answers by age is interesting: the older a person is, the more positive a forecast he gives regarding the economic situation. Among young people, the share was 65%, and among the older generation – 70. The first on the list is again the Fergana region, where 73% of people expect the country’s economy to improve. The last place was taken by Tashkent, where the share of people who have the same opinion is 61%,” notes Freedom Finance Global analyst Daniyar Orazbayev.

Uzbek inflation estimates rose sharply in September. If in August 25.4% of respondents noted a very strong increase in prices, then in September the share increased to 40.1%. Monthly inflation was 1.24%, the highest this year, while annual inflation accelerated to 9.2%.

The survey, conducted by Freedom Finance Global, also shows that Uzbeks have noticed a sharp rise in flour prices. This turned out to be 59.4%, which is the highest result among all goods and services. Official statistics show an increase in the cost of flour by 15.7% in one month amid the suspension of supplies from Kazakhstan.

Inflation is felt most strongly in Tashkent region, where 49.7% of people note a very sharp jump in prices over the month. The population’s estimates of price growth over the past year have also increased. Now more than half (50.6%) of respondents have noticed their faster growth. Although in August the share of such people was only 42.7%. At the same time, inflation expectations remained virtually unchanged. That is, in fact, rising prices and higher inflation estimates did not have a significant impact on expectations.

In September, devaluation expectations of Uzbek citizens increased slightly - from 23.4 to 24.6% with a one-year horizon and from 25.8 to 29% with a monthly horizon. The share of those who expect the sum to weaken has also increased. Within a year, 63.3% of the population expect weakening, and within a month - 49.1%.

This consumer confidence index study is also being simultaneously conducted in other Central Asian countries - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In September, all countries in the region, except Kazakhstan, showed an improvement in consumer confidence.

“The growth of the index in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan correlates primarily with the growth of positivity in the matter of personal financial situation. Residents of these countries note an improvement in their situation and look forward to it over the next 12 months. The population also has a positive assessment of the current state and prospects of the economies of their countries. But the favorable conditions for making large purchases continue to remain in the negative zone in all four countries. In Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, devaluation expectations are rising despite a relatively more stable exchange rate in September. Let us note that in Uzbekistan, although the growth rate was lower, the vast majority of the population expects the soum to weaken during the year,” sums up the Freedom Finance Global analyst. The third wave of the study of consumer confidence of residents of four Central Asian countries, which showed statistics for September, largely confirmed the results of the second – August – wave. One can cautiously conclude that there are certain trends in some countries that are explained by fundamental features, official statistics, media reports and movements in national currency quotes. There is also some economic connection of the same product in the entire region. If last time rice was noted, then this time such a product turned out to be flour. The resulting clearer and more complete picture may be useful to all major economic agents in the Central Asian region.