Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) —  The consumer confidence index in Uzbekistan showed a notable recovery in October 2024 after a decline in September, rising from 128.7 to 132.5 points, reports Freedom Holding.

The improvement affected all five sub-indices included in the calculation of the overall index. The largest increase was observed in the sub-index reflecting changes in the economic situation. However, compared to October 2023, the index decreased by 1.9 points, which is largely attributed to worsened sentiment regarding the economic situation.

The most significant improvement in October was the increase in the sub-index that reflects changes in the economic situation, which rose by 7.2 points to reach 126.7 points—the best result in the last seven months. Nearly 55% of respondents believe the economy has improved over the past year, which is 5 percentage points higher than in September.

Regionally, the most significant changes occurred in Jizzakh, Bukhara, and Samarkand regions, where the proportion of positive responses increased by 15.6, 11.6, and 8.9 percentage points, respectively. Other regions saw smaller changes. Khorezm region still leads with 64.2% positive responses, while Tashkent remains the lowest, where the proportion increased by only 0.1 percentage points to 37%.

Another notable improvement was the rise in the sub-index reflecting changes in personal material well-being over the past year, which increased by 4.2 points, also showing the best result in seven months. More than 62% of respondents reported that their financial situation had improved, which is 4.3 percentage points higher than in September.

Regionally, the most significant improvement was in Bukhara, where the proportion of respondents indicating an improvement in their material situation increased from 60.8% to 70.1%. In Fergana region, the increase was 8.6 percentage points. The only region showing a negative trend was Surkhandarya, where the share of positive responses decreased from 62.1% to 57.9%. Tashkent remains the lowest at 54.1%.

Inflation expectations in Uzbekistan showed a decrease in October. Last year, 48.6% of respondents felt the impact of rising prices, but this figure dropped to 29.9% in October. At the same time, inflation expectations slightly improved. The proportion of respondents predicting significant price hikes in the next month decreased from 19.6% to 18.8%. The one-year inflation expectations decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 24.2%, which is the lowest value observed throughout the study period.

According to official statistics, inflation in October was 0.84% month-on-month, while annual inflation decreased from 10.46% to 10.24%. Notably, the rate of price increase for meat slowed to 1%, compared to 3-5% growth in previous months. Food products and meat remain the leaders in price growth, though their overall impact on respondents’ sentiment has decreased.

Devaluation expectations continued to rise, particularly concerning the exchange rate of the national currency. 60.5% of respondents expect the sum to weaken over the next year, and the proportion of pessimists for the upcoming month rose to 42.7%.

In other Central Asian countries, inflation expectations decreased in October. However, in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, consumer confidence improved despite a temporary pause in September. In Kyrgyzstan, the confidence index fell for the second consecutive month, reducing the gap with Uzbekistan. Tajikistan showed a slight decline amid improvements in specific areas, though the overall change raised questions about future trends.

As noted by Freedom Holding analyst Daniyar Orazbayev, October was a significant month for Central Asia, marked by structural changes in public sentiment.