Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) - The volume of China’s foreign trade in the period from January to November 2020 increased by 7.8% on an annualized basis, amounting to about US$4.5 trillion, which is estimated by experts as a positive signal for not only the Chinese, but also the world economy.

I. According to the National Statistics Service of the PRC, during the specified period, the volume of exports increased by 14.9%, while imports fell by 0.8%. The trade surplus in November was US$75.4 billion, the highest monthly figure since 1990.

It is noted that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has become China’s largest trading partner. During the period under review, trade between China and ASEAN increased by 5.6%, amounting to US$542 billion. The growth in trade was due to the intensification of cooperation within the framework of the protocol on the modernization of the China-ASEAN free trade zone.

Other drivers of trade were an increase in PRC exports of agricultural products and cooperation in the production of electronics between China and countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore, within the global supply chain.

For 11 months of 2020, the second largest trading partner of China was the European Union (425.5 billion euros), and the third - the United States (US$412.5 billion).

Experts point out that private companies have played a significant role in the growth of China’s foreign trade. Their share increased by 11.3% and amounted to 46.4% of the total trade volume. The sharp increase in the volume of exports was also associated with an increase in global demand for personal protective equipment, medicines, household appliances, and textile products.

Taking into account the indicators of China’s foreign trade, Bloomberg observers predict that the growth of the Chinese economy in 2021 will exceed 8%. Such a high rate of development is justified by the further economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken by the country’s government in 2020.

II. The South China Morning Post highlights a number of measures that have helped Beijing quickly restore full economic functioning:

- aggressive containment of the coronavirus. In the successful fight against COVID-19, an important role was played by non-medical measures related to self-isolation, blocking of cities with the obligatory preservation of the effectiveness of national governance and collective solidarity;

- incentives for companies and exports. China allocated US$89 billion for the implementation of measures such as tax breaks for companies, soft loans, exemption of delivery services from VAT, reduction of administrative fees, financial support for exporting enterprises;

- ensuring food security. The government has created a safe working environment for food processing farms, especially in the livestock and poultry sectors, to ensure uninterrupted food supply to the population;

- the use of remote work technologies. The development of the Internet and modern technologies has allowed Chinese enterprises to quickly adapt to work under quarantine conditions;

- checking the readiness to resume the normal working cycle. During the quarantine, the Chinese authorities checked the readiness of the infrastructure of cities, intercity communication lines in order to quickly ensure the restoration of supply chains within the country.

The rapid recovery of factories has enabled the PRC to capitalize on global demand amid the pandemic. The resumption of production while China’s main competitors in Western countries remained in quarantine mode helped Chinese exporters gain a record global market share.

As a result, according to the statistics service of the European Union, the share of China in the total volume of world exports reached 16%, while the share of the EU - 15%, the USA - 11%, Japan - 5%, South Korea - 4%.

III. Most experts consider the increase in China’s foreign trade as a positive moment for restoring growth in the world economy and preventing a global recession.

Thus, The Diplomat points out that the launch of previously closed factories in China has helped to restore demand for both resources and consumer goods. This was the impetus for the revival of the economies of the PRC’s partner countries, primarily Russia, the states of Central Asia and the Persian Gulf, which are the main suppliers of energy resources for the Chinese economy.

In this context, the German Deutsche Welle believes that the growth of China’s foreign trade and the recovery of the Chinese economy as a whole can have a positive impact on the prospects for German companies. In 2019, about 50% of all European exports to China were goods from German manufacturers. In particular, the German concern Daimler sold about 700 thousand vehicles in China, which is twice as much as its sales in the United States. Another auto giant from Germany, Volkswagen, annually sells about 40% of its products to the Chinese market.

At the same time, The Financial Times notes that at this stage, 90% of the total turnover of Chinese-European trade comes from the supply of Chinese goods to Europe and only 10% from the sale of European goods to China. The foreign trade deficit for the EU exceeds 185 billion euros. and it is steadily increasing.

According to the British publication The Economist, the Chinese economy has once again demonstrated its resistance to various risks, adaptability to new conditions. Despite the coronavirus pandemic and the "trade war" with the United States, China is increasing its dominance and concentration of the overwhelming share of world production. The lion’s share of the goods consumed in the United States, especially in everyday demand, are of Chinese origin.

In general, as noted by most experts, the prompt solution of the problems associated with the COVID-19 epidemic provided China with the opportunity to be the first among the world’s economies to restore the full functioning of industries and ensure the growth of foreign trade. In light of the ongoing quarantine in the United States and Europe, in the near future, Beijing may further increase exports and strengthen its position in the global economy. China is likely to be the only major economy in the world to post positive GDP growth in 2020, driving the global economy.