Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented a preliminary estimate of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2024.

The 2024 forecast is prepared by CERR based on modern forecasting tools using the Nowcasting approach, which is based on extremely detailed streams of extensive data, is more efficient and has high accuracy.

At the end of 2023, economic growth in the country amounted to 6%. According to Uzstat estimates, growth of 6% was noted in industry, 6.8% in the service sector, 6.4% in construction, and 4.1% in agriculture. This year it is planned to increase GDP by 6%, to $100 billion.

According to official statistics, since the beginning of 2024, there has been a significant increase in industry, services, construction, and retail trade, while foreign trade turnover has decreased slightly.

The continued growth of economic activity in the country is also indicated by the growth of the Business Climate Index calculated by CERR. Since the beginning of the year, optimistic business expectations regarding development prospects have increased most among manufacturing and construction companies. Assessments of the current state of business in all industries except services were more positive.

An increase in search queries on Google Trends (a service created for statistical assessment) also indicates an improvement in economic activity in the country. In particular, an analysis of the number of requests for January-February relative to last year showed an increase in the following categories: “motor vehicles” – by 9.2%, “business and industry” – by 8.8%, “shopping” – by 3 ,1%.

Uzbekistan GDP growth forecast in the first quarter of 2024

In general, taking into account the above factors, the growth of the economy of Uzbekistan in the first quarter of 2024 will reach 5.6% (5.5% for the first quarter of 2023). The boundaries of the forecast corridor are set within 5.45% -5.75%.

According to forecasts of international organizations and credit agencies, this year the economic growth of Uzbekistan will range from 5.2% to 5.6%.

The main factors of economic growth will be state economic policy aimed at increasing efficiency and reducing costs through optimization of procurement, logistics, energy saving and digitalization.