Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) raised Uzbekistan’s GDP forecast for 2022 to 5.81% from 5.77%. In doing so, a nocasting approach was used, based on extremely detailed big data streams.

Model-based forecasts based on the nocasting approach have been used by the CERR since 2021 and allow revealing special aspects of GDP that cannot be revealed in quarterly indicators.

During the third quarter of 2022, the growing trend in weekly GDP dynamics, which was observed in the second quarter of this year, continued. It is expected that the upward trend of growth during the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2022 will increase the GDP growth rate by at least 0.75% year on year compared to the 1st half of the year.

A significant recovery of the economy after a noticeable slowdown in the 1st quarter was due to growth in the volume of external trade turnover, business activity in the services and government assistance sectors. In particular, the foreign trade turnover of goods and services increased by 14% and 12% in August and September, respectively. Activity in the service sector also rose significantly, as indicated by an increase in searches in categories such as "business and industry" (up 14.5%) and "leisure and entertainment" (9.7%).

Taking into account the above factors, the GDP growth forecast for the end of the third quarter is 5.81% (forecast range was 5.78%-5.83%). At the same time, according to the CERR forecast, no significant fluctuations in economic growth are expected in the short term, as fundamental economic factors remain stable.

It is expected that in the 4th quarter the growth of the economy of Uzbekistan will remain at the level of the 3rd quarter of 2022. The previous CERR forecast, released in August this year, predicted GDP growth at 5.77% in 2022.