Central Bank of Uzbekistan keeps key rate at 14 percent per annum

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — On 11 September 2025, the Board of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 14 percent per annum.

According to the regulator, in the second quarter upward pressure on prices continued due to strong economic activity and robust consumer demand. However, since August, following the fading effect of last year’s low base, inflation has begun to slow. Maintaining the rate is aimed at consolidating this trend and supporting the declining trajectory of core inflation.

As of August, the annual inflation rate fell to 8.8 percent compared with July, while core inflation declined to 7.6 percent, due to more moderate price growth for both food and non-food goods. At the same time, with high aggregate demand persisting, secondary effects of rising energy prices continue to influence service-sector inflation.

Seasonal factors and the stability of the exchange rate in recent months have contributed to a decline in inflation expectations, although they remain above actual values.

Economic growth accelerated to 7.2 percent in the first half of the year, driven by dynamic development in services, industry, construction, and agriculture. Aggregate demand continues to be supported by growth in cross-border remittances, increased lending, higher budgetary spending, and investment activity.

The Central Bank also notes that the slow decline in global inflation, ongoing constraints in international trade, rising food prices, and higher inflation among key trading partners may contribute to increased imported inflationary pressure. According to forecasts, inflation in Uzbekistan for 2025 is expected to reach around 8.7 percent.

Maintaining a relatively tight monetary policy, the regulator believes, supports the attractiveness of savings, contributes to balanced credit activity, and ensures fair pricing of financial resources. This, in turn, helps keep aggregate demand within sustainable limits and reduces the impact of monetary factors on inflation.

The Central Bank emphasizes that a stable downward trajectory for inflation will take time. In the event of increased risks or higher-than-expected price pressures, monetary policy parameters may be revised.

The next meeting of the Central Bank Board on the key rate is scheduled for 23 October 2025.