Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- The German Society for Foreign Policy released a report entitled "Connectedness in Eurasia: Geopolitical Opportunities for the EU", which examined:
a) the main trends in the development of the Eurasian macro-region, manifested against the background of the coronavirus pandemic;
b) changing the influence of China and Russia in the region;
c) proposals for adapting the European Eurasian Connectivity Strategy, adopted in 2018, to the new conditions.
I. Considering the new conditions formed in Eurasia as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the authors of the report note three general trends affecting the processes of self-determination of the macroregion.
First, the focus on China is diminishing and the leading role of the One Belt and One Road Initiative (BRI). Supply and value chains are becoming more diversified and localized within the region. As a result, China’s role as a supplier of key industrial goods, parts and components is expected to decline in the short to medium term.
Second, Russia’s desire to diversify its economic and diplomatic relations in Asia and Europe amid growing technological, economic and infrastructural dependence on China.
Thirdly, the restoration of broken production ties between China, the United States and potentially the EU, which leads to a "regional approach" of production to these countries.
II. Pointing to the change in the status of China and Russia in the region, German experts note:
1. China is becoming a power setting technological and political standards in Eurasia, implementing initiatives such as the IPP, Made in China 2025 and Chinese standards 2035, and promoting values within the framework of the Community of a Common Future for Humanity, opposing the Western liberal development model;
2. Russia, agreeing to the status of a junior partner in economic relations with China, does not weaken the interest in recognizing the status of a world power on the part of other countries, primarily the United States, and implements a long-term strategy of “pivot to Asia”;
3. Beijing and Moscow will strive for ad hoc and flexible cooperation with the EU for the foreseeable future. The deteriorating relationship with the United States is pushing China towards broader cooperation with Europe for a number of reasons: a) an important source of technological know-how; b) the final market; c) support within the existing international system and multilateral institutions. At the same time, for Moscow, the revitalization of economic and financial relations with European countries will eventually become a critically important area of "equalizing" relations with China.
III. In this regard, the authors of the report propose to adapt the Connectivity Strategy, acting in four directions.
First, the promotion of dialogue with China and Russia with the participation of the Eastern Partnership countries to identify common interests and differences in each of the areas of interaction and form common agreed "rules of the game."
Second, the resumption of strategic dialogue with Russia, both bilaterally and multilaterally, which will expand the EU’s room for maneuver towards China.
Third, diversification of supply chains and value creation, with a focus on areas: digital communications, low-carbon technologies, regional power grids, integration of intra-regional transport networks, support of European supply chains across Eurasia.
Fourth, the promotion of cooperation at the level of cities and regions in the promotion of digital and green technologies, industrial innovations throughout Eurasia.