Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Two main forces are fighting for power in Libya - sitting in the west of the country in Tripoli - the Government of National Accord (GNA) led by F. Sarraj and the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by H. Haftar on east. The GNA is supported by Turkey, Qatar. The main ally of the LNA is Egypt, a number of Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, France, Russia.

The aim of the truce is to end hostilities and find a political solution to the Libyan crisis. It assumes: the withdrawal of all foreign forces from the country, the holding of elections in 2021, the resumption of oil production and the accumulation of funds from its sale in the "Libyan Foreign Bank" until a political solution is found, etc.

Observers note that the warring parties agreed to conclude agreements not only because of the protracted military confrontation, but also due to the fall in Libya's oil revenues, growing popular discontent and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Analyzing the chances of success of the ceasefire initiative, experts draw attention to the following internal processes in Libya.

1. For almost a week in various cities of Libya, protests have not stopped, engulfing both the western and eastern parts of the split country. People are protesting against rising prices, water shortages, power outages, unemployment, lack of proper care for those infected with the coronavirus and corruption.

2. A split in the ranks of the GNA in Tripoli. A number of militia commanders do not agree with the policy of Prime Minister F. Saraj. They accuse him of a lack of political will to continue hostilities, reject statements of an armistice and threaten to independently continue the armed struggle against the LNA.

Against the background of popular protests, the contradictions in the GNA exacerbate the political isolation of F. Saraj and lead to a decrease in the military-political potential of the government in Tripoli.

Demonstrations can affect the balance of power in Libya, especially in the event of an increase in repression against protesters, which could lead to people switching to the other side.

In general, experts note that popular unrest has become an unaccounted for factor in the balance of power in Libya. The situation could spiral out of control of the authorities in both parts of the country and interfere with the plans of international mediators seeking to reconcile the warring camps.