The business climate of Uzbekistan in 2021 takes a vector to recovery - CERR study
21/01/2022 19:30
The business climate of Uzbekistan in 2021 takes a vector to recovery - CERR study
21/01/2022 19:30
Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- The easing of quarantine restrictions and large-scale measures taken by the government to support the economy, including a number of measures taken by the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan after his meeting with entrepreneurs in the format of an open dialogue on 20 August 2021, allowed maintaining positive momentum economic growth in 2021.
The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) conducted a monthly survey of more than 1,000 companies over the past year in two areas: a qualitative assessment of the current state of the business and the expectations of entrepreneurs regarding the prospects for the development of their business for the next three months.
In 2021, all business climate indicators remained at a high level. The average annual composite indicator in 2021 was 60 points, which is 18 points more than in 2020.
The maximum value of the consolidated indicator of the business climate was recorded in January and amounted to 69 points, and the minimum - in May (53 points).
Dynamics of the business climate indicator
In May 2021, representatives of the industrial sector were concerned about the fall in demand for goods (55%), the provision of raw materials (13%). Representatives of the agricultural sector associated the poor condition with the difficulties of water supply.
In the period from June 2020 to April 2021, according to FAO data, a decrease in precipitation was observed in all regions of the country. Further, a sharp drop in temperature to -12 degrees at the end of February 2021 (in Karakalpakstan to -22 degrees) led to a deterioration in demand among the population, a temporary halt in construction work, as well as a slowdown in the agricultural sector (a possible loss of fruit and berry crops was estimated from 30% up to 80%).
Every month, on average for 2021, according to 43% of entrepreneurs, there was a good current state of the business climate, 46% improved demand for goods and services, and 26% increased the number of employees.
It is worth noting that 2021 was marked by very high optimism among representatives of small and medium-sized businesses. An improvement in the general condition of the business in the short term was observed on average in 77% of respondents.
Changes in the business climate in December 2021
In December last year, the consolidated indicator of the business climate increased by 10 points compared to the same period in 2020 and amounted to 62 points, which assesses the state of the business climate in Uzbekistan as positive (in December 2020 - 52 points).
The indicator of the current state of the business was 50 points (November - 44 points), which characterizes the positive mood of entrepreneurs regarding the current state of the business (in December 2020 - 33 points).
The growth of the current state indicator is associated with improved sentiment among entrepreneurs in industry - 47 points (November - 38 points), services - 51 points (November - 45 points), agriculture - 52 points (November - 47 points) and construction - 51 points (November - 49 points),
The indicator of expectations of business development prospects amounted to 75 points (November - 67 points), which reflects the expectations of entrepreneurs about the prospects for the development of their business for the next 3 months as optimistic (in December 2020 - 73 points).
All of the above leads to an acceleration in the pace of recovery. Also, we see that 82% of companies expect their business to improve at the beginning of 2022 (November - 74%, December 2020 - 73%).
It is expected that the demand for goods and services will improve in 67% of enterprises (November - 65%, December 2020 - 60%), the number of employees will increase in 68% (November - 61%, December 2020 - 59%).
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