Development of the economy of Uzbekistan in January-September 2021
18/10/2021 15:58
Development of the economy of Uzbekistan in January-September 2021
18/10/2021 15:58
Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) - On the main macroeconomic results of the nine months of 2021 in a review by the expert of the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR), Ruslan Abaturov.
The external environment remained generally favorable despite the continuation of the pandemic. The economies of the main partner countries continue to actively recover. Thus, Kazakhstan’s GDP grew in January-September 2021 by 3.4% against the background of last year’s decline by 2.6%. According to the results of three quarters, the economy of Kyrgyzstan overcame the recession and entered a slight growth of 0.1%. In Turkmenistan, GDP grew by 6.2%. In Russia, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, economic growth in January-August amounted to 4.7%.
The President of Uzbekistan held a video selector on the macroeconomic situation, economic growth in regions and industries
Inflation in Uzbekistan continues to slow down. At the end of September, by December last year, an increase in the consumer price index by 5.9% was recorded, which is lower than 6.3% in the same period of last year. The largest increase in prices was observed for consumer goods - 6.7%. Prices for non-food products for 9 months increased by 4.9%. As before, this year the prices for services demonstrate outrunning growth in comparison with the last year - 6.1% against 4.5%.
The inflow of investments, which went into negative territory last year, is showing moderate growth rates at the level of 5%. Investments continue to decline due to centralized sources: from 22% in January-September 2020 to 18.7% in the same period of this year. The decrease is mainly due to the reduction of attracted foreign loans guaranteed by the government. At the same time, investments from budget funds increased by 28%. In contrast, the share of investments from decentralized sources increased from 78% to 81%. For example, enterprises increased their investment by 5%, foreign loans and foreign direct investment grew by 16% in dollar terms. There is an increased dynamics of investment growth at the expense of the population - by 11%. In general, investment activity in the economy is gradually tending to pre-crisis indicators, but with a significant structural change in the share of funding sources.
According to the results of 9 months, output growth is observed in all sectors of the economy. The main drivers are the service sector and industry.
The industry is actively increasing production volumes - an increase of 9%, while last year, following the results of three quarters, there was a decline of almost 2%. The extractive industry is growing at double-digit rates - by 14.2%, seeking to recover against the background of a serious recession last year, caused by a decrease in demand in external markets for natural gas, and, as a result, a decrease in production in the country. The manufacturing industry for 9 months grew by 7.4% against growth by 4.9% in the same period of last year. Accelerated dynamics with double-digit growth rates are noted in the production of beverages, textiles and clothing, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastic products, metallurgical and electrical products. At the same time, there is a decline in production volumes in the automotive industry and oil refining. In the field of power supply, gas supply and air conditioning, the growth rates have slightly slowed down compared to last year, but they still remain high at 10.7%.
The service sector, despite the persisting costs of the pandemic for tourism, transport, catering, trade, does not slow down the high growth rates gained since the beginning of the year. For 9 months, the volume of services rendered increased by 19.5%, while the same period last year only by 1.8%. The increased dynamics is noted in the industries of financial services, education services, health care, information and communications, rental and real estate. The transport sector continues to recover - an increase in the volume of services by 16.5%, freight turnover by 12.3%, and passenger turnover by 7.4%. Retail turnover is also growing - 9.8% against the background of a 0.2% decline over the same period last year.
The growth of output in the construction sector slowed down somewhat - from 7.8% in January-September 2020 to 4.5%.
Agriculture over the period under review, on the contrary, increased the growth rate of output from 2.9% to 4.2%, mainly due to the increased dynamics in crop production by 5.4%. Livestock output grew by 2.8% versus 2.2% in 9 months of 2020.
In foreign trade, following the results of 9 months, growth rates slowed down significantly to 2.5%. The volume of foreign trade turnover amounted to US$28.2 billion. A serious decline is observed in exports by 17%. At the same time, imports grew by 18.7%.
Meanwhile, it should be noted that this year, exports excluding gold are growing. So, for example, the export of textile products increased in nine months by 58.3%, services by 24%, machinery and equipment by 80%, chemical products by 26%.
The increase in imports is due to an increase in supplies from abroad of food products by 37%, services by 45%, ferrous metals and products from them by 30%, chemical products by 21%. At the same time, the import of machinery and equipment, as the largest item, increased by 5.5%, reaching $ 6.8 billion.
Thus, the economy of Uzbekistan for 9 months of this year, despite the ongoing challenges of the pandemic, has already returned to advanced growth.
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