Business climate index shows growth of entrepreneurs’ expectations - CERR survey
08/01/2021 19:47
Business climate index shows growth of entrepreneurs’ expectations - CERR survey
08/01/2021 19:47
Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- The economic situation in Uzbekistan continues to gradually improve. This is according to the results of the December survey among enterprises to assess the state of the business climate, reflecting the mood in the Uzbek business community.
As restrictions are lifted and the economy recovers, government support remains key. Reforms taken by the government create positive impulses for the economy. In his Address to Parliament, the President of Uzbekistan announced new measures, including support for business, an extension of the moratorium on inspections of business entities for another year, tax incentives, canceled excise taxes on 73 commodity items in the food, oil and electrical industries, and increased healthcare costs.
The assessment of the state of the business climate in Uzbekistan is monthly calculated by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) based on a survey of more than 1000 enterprises throughout the country.
The survey takes place in two directions:
- qualitative assessment of the current state of the business;
- expectation of entrepreneurs for the next 2-3 months.
Indicator of the current state of business in December 2020 made up 33 points, an increase of 6 points compared to the previous month, which characterizes the moderately positive sentiment of entrepreneurs regarding the current state of their business.
In particular, the indicator of the current state in the industry rose by 10 points compared to November, in the construction and services sectors, an increase was recorded by 14 and 24 points, respectively. In the agricultural sector, on the contrary, there was a decrease of 24 points.
Out of 1003 surveyed enterprises, 41% assessed the current state of business as “good”, 41% as “satisfactory” and 18% as “bad”.
36% of enterprises reported that the demand for goods / services “improved”, 45% answered “did not change”, 19% “worsened”. The number of employees “increased” for 18% of enterprises, “did not change” - 73%, “decreased” - 9%.
The indicator of expectations of business development prospects for the next 3 months reached 73 points, having increased by 22 points compared to the previous month, that is, the expectations of entrepreneurs about the prospects for their business development for the next 3 months are positive.
In particular, the indicator of expectations for the prospects in agriculture increased by 29 points, industry by 21, construction by 39, and services by 14 points, respectively.
73% of enterprises estimated that their business prospects "will improve", 23% believe that they will "not change" and only 4% - "will deteriorate".
It is expected that the demand for goods / services will "improve" in 60% of enterprises, 32% answered - "will not change", 8% - "will worsen".
More than half of enterprises plan to “increase” the number of employees over the next three months (59%), while 39% of the respondents answered that the number of employees “will not change” and only 1% answered “it will decrease”.
16% of enterprises predict an “increase” in prices for their goods / services, 27% are sure that prices “will not change”, 3% expect a “decrease” in prices, and 54% “do not know” how the cost of produced goods and services will change.
The business climate indicator was 52 points, showing an increase of 13 points compared to the previous month, i.e. the state of the business climate in the country is assessed as “good”.
The relationship between the values of the current situation and expectations means that the positive trend in economic development will continue in the next 3 months. In particular, the indicator of the business climate in agriculture increased by one point and amounted to 58, in industry and construction the growth was 15 and 29 points, respectively, services increased by 19 points compared to November 2020.
Assessment of similar indicators of the business climate in the month of December 2020 for the main partner countries consists of the following: Turkey (7), Russia (-7.3), PRC (1.9) and South Korea (-18).
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