CERR: Entrepreneurs expect growth of business pace
16/09/2020 12:05
CERR: Entrepreneurs expect growth of business pace
16/09/2020 12:05
Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) under the Administration of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan conducted another round of a survey among enterprises to assess the business climate in Uzbekistan.
The survey was conducted in two directions:
- a qualitative assessment of the current state of the business;
- expectation of entrepreneurs for the next 2-3 months.
The indicator of the current state of business amounted to 36 points (an increase of 24 points compared to the previous month), which characterizes the moderately positive sentiment of entrepreneurs regarding the current state of their business.
Of the 1004 enterprises that took part in the August survey, 38% rated the current state of business as "good" (in July of this year, this figure was 30%), 46% consider the state of their business as "satisfactory" (in July 47%), only 16% of entrepreneurs rated it as “bad” (23% - July).
At the same time, the demand for goods / services is considered “improved” by 34% of enterprises (32% in July), “unchanged” - 32% (in July 36%), “worsened” - 34% (in July 32%).
The analysis showed that the number of employees “increased” for 11% of enterprises (17% in July), “did not change” - 72% (68% in July) and “decreased” - 17% (15% in July).
The indicator of expectations for business development prospects for the next 2-3 months was 63 points (a decrease of 3 points), which means that entrepreneurs’ expectations about the prospects for their business development for the next 2-3 months are positive.
The poll showed that 64% of the respondents believe that the prospects for their business development will "improve" (68% in July), 33% said they will "not change" (29% in July) and only 3% of enterprises believe that they will "worsen" (in July 3%).
It is expected that demand for goods / services will “improve” in 71% of enterprises (65% in July), “will not change” - 25% (30% in July), “worsen” - 4% (5% in July). At the same time, 48% of enterprises expect an “increase” in the number of employees (in July 53%), “will not change” - 49% (in July 45%), “decrease” - 3% (in July 2%).
24% of enterprises expect a "rise" in prices for their goods / services (36% in July), 73% of respondents believe that prices "will not change" (61% in July) and only 3% answered that they will "decrease" (in July 3%).
Business climate indicator in August of this year amounted to 49 points (an increase of 12 points), i.e. the state of the business climate in the country is assessed as good.
The relationship between the values of the current situation and expectations means that the country’s economy will experience accelerated development in the next 2-3 months.
The business climate assessment includes three main indicators:
Assessment of the current state of the business. It is calculated as the difference between the answers "Good" and "Bad" as a percentage of the population of the sample. The value of the current state varies from -100 points (all respondents assess the current state as bad) to 100 points (all respondents assess the current state as good);
Expectations of business development prospects for the next 2-3 months. It is calculated as the difference between the answers "Will improve" and "Worse" as a percentage of the sample population. The expectation value ranges from -100 points (all respondents expect further deterioration in their business) to 100 points (all respondents expect further improvement from the business);
The business climate value is calculated based on the average balance sheet values of the current state and business expectations. The Business Climate value can fluctuate between -100 points (all respondents assess the current state as bad and expect further deterioration of their business) and 100 points (all respondents assess the current state as good and expect further improvement in their business).
Based on the relationship between indicators of the current state and expectations of prospects, it is possible to determine the phases of the economic cycle in the country for the next 2-3 months.
If both values of the current state and expectations are negative, then the economy in the country, in the next 2-3 months, will be in a state of recession. If the value of the current state is negative, while the value of the expectation is positive, then the economy, in the next 2-3 months, will experience recovery or recovery.
If both values of the current state and expectations are positive, then the economy, in the next 2-3 months, will experience accelerated development.
If the value of the current state is positive, while the value of the expectation is negative, then the economy, in the next 2-3 months, will show a slowdown in growth.
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