Deflation in June in Uzbekistan was 0.5%
Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) - In June 2019, Uzbekistan recorded a decrease in the average level of prices in the consumer market. The deflation in June made up 0.5%.
In general, in January-June 2019, goods and services in the consumer market became more expensive by 5.6%, the Uzbek State Statistics Committee said.
In relation to June 2018, the average price level in the republic’s consumer sector increased by 13.6%.
In June 2018, on average per month, goods and services became cheaper by 0.4%, compared to December 2017, they went up by 6.2%, in June 2017 - by 17.7%.
An analysis of the dynamics of monthly price fluctuations for the first half of 2018 and 2019 showed that both in 2018 and 2019, June was characterized by a decrease in the general level of consumer prices for the month. This is largely due to seasonal trends and a massive drop in prices for fruit and vegetable products.
The growth dynamics of the composite consumer price index in annual terms (month to the corresponding month of the previous year) from January 2018 to June 2019 is characterized by a general tendency to a gradual decrease.
In particular, the peak value was reached in January 2018 (20.1%) with a subsequent decrease to 13.6% in June 2019.
It is also important to note that during the first half of 2019 after reaching its minimum in January (an increase of 13.0%), the annual consumer price index began to increase smoothly and ranged from 113.5 to 113.7%.
As for price changes in the context of enlarged groups, by the end of June 2019, the price level for goods for the month decreased by 0.8%, including for food products - by 1.8%. Non-food products became more expensive for the month by 0.6%, services - by 0.7%.
In June 2018, food products on average a month became cheaper by 1.8%, non-food products went up by 0.8%, services - by 0.3%.
In general, in January-June 2019, foodstuffs went up by 5.9%, non-food products - by 5.2%, services - by 5.3%.
In annual terms (June 2019 compared to June 2018), food products became more expensive by 16.3%, non-food products - by 10.9%, services - by 12.9%.
In June 2018 compared to December 2017, food prices increased by 4.7%, non-food products - by 6.7%, services - by 8.0%. Compared with June 2017, the price increase was respectively 19.4%, 17.7% and 12.9%.
An analysis of the dynamics of the consumer price index calculated to the level of December 2017 showed that if a change in the prices of services and non-food products is characterized by a relatively smoothed and gradual increase in the level, the price change curve for food products has a wave-like character, which is largely due to seasonal trends in certain groups of goods (fruit and vegetable and dairy products, eggs, etc.).
It should also be noted that the leadership in the growth of consumer prices and tariffs relative to the end of 2017 belongs to services (a growth over one and a half years by 21.9%), followed by food (21.7%) and non-food products (18.3%).
The calculation of the structure of the impact of price changes, taking into account the proportion of each enlarged group, showed that in June 2019 the contribution of services and non-food products to the increase in the composite consumer price index for the month amounted to 0.2 percentage points (hereinafter p.p.), while time, as the decline in food prices, served as a deterrent and led to a decrease in the composite indicator by 0.9 percentage points.
The analysis of the dynamics of the impact of price fluctuations on the main groups of goods and services on the growth of the composite consumer price index for each month of the first half of this year is characterized by a tendency to a gradual decrease in absolute terms, the effect of price changes on food products from January to May 2019 (from 1.2 pp to 0.2 pp) and dominance - in June (-0.9 pp).
Along with this, the contribution of the increase in food prices to the increase in the composite consumer price index relative to the end of 2018 remains predominant (food products - 2.6 pp vs. 1.8 pp - non-food products and 1.2 pp - services).
The dynamics of the contribution of price changes in goods and services to the increase in the composite consumer price index relative to December of the previous year is characterized by a gradual decrease in inflationary pressure from food products (the share of influence decreased from 80.0% to 46.6%). The contribution of the increase in prices for non-food products in specific terms, by contrast, increased from 13.3% in January to 32.6% in June of the current year. The share of the impact of growth in tariffs on services on the growth of the composite index of the consumer price index increased from 6.7% in January 2019 to 20.8% in June.
With regard to the structure of the composite consumer price index in annual terms, in June 2019, the impact of rising food prices was 7.1 percentage points, or 52.2%, non-food goods - 3.8 percentage points, or 27.9%, paid services to the population - 2.7 percentage points, or 19.9%.
In June 2018, the average consumer price level for food products for the month decreased by 1.8%. In January-June 2018, prices in this product group increased by 4.7%. In annual terms, the increase in food prices was 19.4%.
Despite the fact that, in general, the trend of price changes in food for the first half of 2019 was manifested in a 5.9% price increase, the dynamics of price changes for each month of this period reflects a general slowdown in price growth rates (from 2.8% in January to 0.5% - in May of the current year with a subsequent decrease in June by 1.8%).
The dynamics of price changes for food relative to December of the previous year has a similar tendency in the first half of 2018 and 2019: from January to May there is an increase in the level of price growth (growth to 6.6% in May 2018 and 7.9% in May 2019 ) with its subsequent decrease to 4.7% in June 2018 and 5.9% in June 2019.
Analysis of the monthly price trends for food in annual terms (to the corresponding month of the previous year) showed the following: if in the first half of 2018 there was a significant decrease in the level of price increases (from 26.8% to 19.4%), then in the corresponding period of 2019 the general trend is upward (from 14.1% to 16.3%). At the same time, the level of price growth in absolute terms in January-June 2019 was lower than in the corresponding period of 2018
Non-alcoholic beverages and meat products (1.4% and 0.8% respectively), as well as alcoholic beverages and public catering (0.7%) hold the leading positions in price growth in June of the current year.
In June 2018, the top three leaders in price increase were bread products (4.8%), meat products (4.3%) and alcoholic beverages (1.0%).
It should be noted that in June of this year, the decisive influence on the level and dynamics of prices both for goods and services as a whole and for the food group had a seasonal decline in prices for the main types of fruits and vegetables.
Over the month, prices for fresh tomatoes (by 57.2%) and cucumbers (by 52.1%) decreased. This is followed by cabbage (by 36.3%), watermelons (by 22.1%) and melons (by 10.7%). Against this background, there was an increase in prices for onions (by 31.1%), citrus fruits (by 1.4%) and beets (by 0.1%).
Leadership in price growth relative to December 2018 belongs to onions (more than 2.1 times), grapes (slightly less than 1.8 times), pears (1.4 times). Along with this, for the half year prices for cucumbers decreased by 84.4%, by 57.5% for tomatoes, by 10.1% for cabbages and by 4.2% for potatoes.
In annual terms, the prices of onions (by 2.3 times), carrots (by 1.8 times) and cabbage (by 1.5 times) increased more than others.
Most noticeably, grapes and apples fell in price during this period (by 26.2% and 21.5%).
In general, over the past period of 2019, dairy products increased in price by 10.1%, alcoholic beverages - by 8.4%, fruit and vegetable production - by 8.1%, bread products, sugar, tea and other products - by 5.3%, meat products - by 5.2%, non-alcoholic beverages - by 4.0%, oil and fats - by 3.1%.
The decrease in prices was noted only for eggs, which in the first half of the year became cheaper by 5.6%. In the first half of this year, rice went up by 9.7%, wheat flour - by 3.6%. The most significant for the month prices for these products increased in January - by 2.4% and 1.6% respectively.
For January-June 2019, prices for rice increased in Ferghana Valley (in Andijan region - by 12.8%, Namangan and Ferghana regions - by 11.3%) higher than in other regions. The minimum was the rise in prices for rice in the Bukhara region (by 5.2%).
For the first half of the year, flour prices in Tashkent (9.1% increase in prices), Surkhandarya and Tashkent regions increased in prices (7.2% and 6.7% increase in prices) higher than the national average (3.6%).
Since the beginning of the year, beef and lamb have risen in price approximately equally: lamb - by 4.8%, boneless beef - by 4.3%, beef (except for boneless meat) - by 4.2%.
In the first half of this year, lamb increased the most noticeably in price in Tashkent and Tashkent region (by 8.2% and 10.2%).
In the same regions, the maximum price increase for boneless beef was recorded (by 6.5% and 11.0%, respectively).
Other beef is more significant than in other regions, it went up in Samarkand (by 7.2%) and Surkhandarya (by 7.3%) regions.
Prices for poultry meat and eggs, by contrast, declined relative to December 2018. During the first half of 2019, the maximum for the month the prices for these food products decreased in April (poultry meat, except for the legs, - by 1.8%, eggs - by 3.1%).
The dynamics of price changes in January-June of the current year in the regional context was uneven.
So, against the background of a general decline in prices for chicken drumstick and chicken legs during this period by 0.4%, in a number of regions, on the contrary, there was an increase in prices: in the Republic of Karakalpakstan (by 3.2%), Jizzakh (by 1.7%) ), Kashkadarya (by 3.4%), Navoi (by 1.5%), Samarkand (by 1.2%), Surkhandarya (by 5.5%), Tashkent (by 2.3%) and Ferghana (by 1.0%) regions.
The maximum price reduction for this product over the past period in 2019 was registered in Tashkent (by 7.2%).
Other poultry meat became more expensive in four regions: the Republic of Karakalpakstan (by 1.8%), Samarkand (by 2.1%), Surkhandarya (by 4.1%) and Tashkent (by 1.9%) regions. In other regions, prices, by contrast, declined (to the maximum - in the Khorezm region by 10.3%).
Eggs fell in all regions, except Namangan and Ferghana regions, where the increase in their prices since the beginning of the year amounted to 1.7 and 1.4%.
Milk increased in price in six months by 12.7%. Against the background of a monthly increase in prices for it in the first five months of 2019 in the range from 0.5% to 5.5% per month, in June a decrease in prices of 0.5% was recorded, which was largely influenced by the seasonal factor.
The prices for milk rose most significantly in Khorezm (by 21.4%) and Kashkadarya (by 18.6%) regions. The minimum was the increase in prices in Tashkent (by 2.3%).
Despite the decline in sugar prices in January-June 2019 compared to January-June 2018, the level of prices for sugar in June 2019 was 4.0% higher than at the end of 2018.
The increase in prices higher than the average in the republic was registered in Namangan (8.5%), Surkhandarya (7.4%), Syrdarya (4.9%), Khorezm (7.7%) regions and Tashkent (4.2%).
The top three leaders in price growth in annual terms of food products are bread products (25.3%), fruits and vegetables (18.6%) and public catering (17.3%).
Compared to June 2018, rice became more expensive by 1.3 times, milk - by 25.6%, flour - by 17.1%, eggs - by 16.1%, lamb - by 12.1%, boneless beef - by 8.6%, other beef - by 12.4%, chicken leg and legs - by 11.5%, other poultry meat - by 13.5%, sugar - by 3.8%.
An analysis of the contribution of price changes for the main groups of food products showed that in June of the current year, fruit and vegetables belong to the aggregate index of consumer price index over the month, taking into account the share of each group of products, which, while the prices dropped a month, was 10.5% provided a decrease in the aggregate by 0.86 percentage points This is followed by meat products (0.09 pp) and bakery products (0.03 pp). In June 2018, the leadership in influence on the consolidated figure for the month belonged to fruit and vegetable (-1.45 pp) and meat (0.44 pp) products, as well as bread products (0.41 pp).
In the structure of the composite consumer price index for June 2019 compared to December of the previous year, fruit and vegetable production also takes the leading place (0.66 percentage points). Next in line with the decrease of influence are meat products (0.55 pp), bakery products (0.43 pp) and dairy products (at 0.34 pp).
In June 2018, the leadership in terms of the impact on the consolidated indicator by December 2017 belonged to meat products (1.35 percentage points). This was followed by bread products (0.68 pp) and fruit and vegetable products (-0.36 pp).
Non-food products in June 2019, on average, went up by 0.6%, which led to an increase in the composite consumer price index for the month by 0.2 percentage points.
A comparison of the dynamics of consumer price indices for non-food products for the first half of 2018 and 2019 showed a relatively similar general trend of price changes in the compared periods. Significantly than in other months, the price gap was in January (102.3% - in 2018 against 100.5% - in 2019) and April (100.4% - in 2018 against 101.1% - in 2019 year).
In January 2018, the existing consumer price index for non-food products was significantly affected by the increase in fuel prices for cars (by 4.6%), building materials (by 2.6%), clothes (by 2.8%) and shoes (by 2.1%). In April 2019, the rise in prices for the month was higher than in April 2018, in almost all the main groups of goods (the strongest gap was noted for tobacco products (105.0% versus 100.0%).
In general, for January-June 2019 to December of the previous year, compared with the same indicator for January-June 2018, there is a relative slowdown in the growth rate of prices for non-food products. So, if in the first half of 2018 the average monthly price increase for goods of this group was 1.1%, in the same period of 2019 it was at the level of 0.9%.
The average monthly increase in the price index for the period from the beginning of the year is calculated as an increase in the geometric mean from the short-term (to the previous month) price indices from January to the current month.
The relative slowdown in rates is also indicated by the dynamics of price changes in annual terms: 10.9% - in June 2019 versus 17.7% - in June 2018.
Of the main non-food product groups in June 2019, fuel prices for automobiles rose most significantly - by 2.1%, fabrics and yarn - by 1.3% and household textiles - by 1.0%.
Regarding the end of 2018, non-food products with the largest share in the set of goods and services for calculating the consumer price index increased more than others the prices for foodstuffs (8.8%), fabrics and yarn (7.7%) and personal care products ( 7.2%). Of the other groups, printed products (19.4%), communications (12.0%), washing and cleaning products (11.2%), basic household goods and electrical appliances (8.9%), agricultural implements (7.1%).
In annual terms, the highest growth was in prices for coal for domestic needs - by 1.7 times, printed products - by 21.0%, matches - by 19.0%, communications equipment - by 17.2%, tobacco products - by 16.8%, washing and cleaning products - by 14.8%.
Based on the Protocol of the coordination of the retail price for coal sold to the population and state-financed organizations through the coal warehouses of the Temiryulenilinitamin JSC, Uzbekistan Temir Yollari, from July 1, 2018, increased prices for coal were introduced. Rising prices for the month amounted to slightly more than 1.7 times (74.3%).
Among the main non-food product groups, the consolidated consumer price index for June 2019 compared to the previous month had a predominant effect, taking into account the share, the increase in fuel prices for cars (0.05 pp), clothing and footwear (total 0.06 p. p.), personal care products, fabrics and yarn, medicines, jewelry, building materials, household textiles, basic household goods and electrical appliances, detergents and cleaning products (0.01 pp).
The contribution of the increase in prices for clothing and footwear to the increase in the composite consumer price index as compared to December 2018 was 0.57 percentage points, detergents and cleaning products, basic household goods and electrical appliances - by 0.16 percentage points, personal care products, building materials - 0.12 pp each, fuel for cars, textiles and yarn, communications - 0.08 pp each, medicines, household textiles, furniture, spare parts for cars - 0.05 pp.
The increase in tariffs for paid services to the population in June 2019 was 0.7%, which led to an increase in the composite consumer price index for the month by 0.2 percentage points.
Since the beginning of 2019, tariffs in this area have increased by an average of 5.3%. Compared with the corresponding month of the previous year, the increase in tariffs was 12.9%.
Over the past since the beginning of 2019, the most significant for the month tariffs increased in March (1.2%) and May (1.5%).
Comparison of tariff growth in January-June 2018 and 2019 showed that in 2018 they increased significantly (8.0% vs. 5.3%), which was determined by the increase in tariffs in the housing sector in April and May 2018 (for the month, respectively, by 9.3% and 2.3%).
Of the observed types of paid services to the population, the prevailing growth in prices and tariffs for the month is registered for medical services (2.4%), passenger transport services (1.4%) and personal services (1.3%).
Due to the rise in prices for health care services, the consolidated consumer price index was increased by 0.05 percentage points in a month. The increase in tariffs for passenger transport services and the cost of personal services added another 0.05 percentage points to the aggregate.
In June of the current year, of the observed types of personal services, the repair of garments (2.6%), laundries (2.2%), rent (1.8%), hairdressing and cosmetologists (1.7% ) recorded the highest growth.
Passenger transport services have become more expensive due to an increase in the fare for a commuter train in Kashkadarya region by 18.8%, long-distance trains by an average of 1.9% and the cost of passenger trains, air transportation - by 7.5%.
Significantly, relative to the end of 2018, the services of pre-school educational institutions went up by 20.5%, household services - by 10.0% and for leisure - by 9.5%.
In relation to June 2018, the most significant was the increase in the cost of education services by 22.8%, fees for the maintenance of children in pre-school educational institutions - by 18.7% and the cost of sports facilities - by 18.0%.
Of the observed types of services, the impact on the increase in the composite consumer price index as compared to December 2018 is occupied by consumer services (0.35 percentage points), services of preschool educational institutions (0.21 percentage points), as well as passenger transport and communication (0.20 percentage points).
In the structure of the index of tariffs for services in June 2019 relative to June 2018, leadership in terms of the degree of influence belongs to services in the field of housing and communal services (0.79 percentage points), consumer services (0.56 percentage points), education (0, 41 pp) and passenger transport (0.35 pp).