In November 2018, prices for goods and services in consumer market of Uzbekistan on average increases by 2.3%

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- In November 2018, prices for goods and services in the consumer market of Uzbekistan on average increased by 2.3%. In general, over 11 months, inflation in the consumer sector was 12%.

In November 2017, inflation in the consumer sector of the republic was 2%, per month, food products added 1/5% to the price, non-food products – 3.4%, services – 0.5%.

An analysis of the changes in consumer prices for each month of the year showed that, since September of this year, inflationary pressure on the economy has increased. Thus, in September, the average consumer price level increased by 1.8% for month, by 1.3% in October and by 2.3% in November, and in general, over the past three months, prices rose 5.4%.

On average, goods for the month added to the price of 2%, and relative to the end of 2017, the growth in their prices amounted to 11.3%.

In November 2017 for the month, prices for goods increased by 2.3%, and in general in January-November 2017 – by 12.4%.  The high growth in goods prices per month was observed in January, when goods on average have risen by 3%. In May and June 2018, the average price level of goods, on the contrary, decreased (by 0.6% and 0.5% per month), which is largely due to the seasonal decline in prices for fruits and vegetables.

The change in consumer prices for goods compared to December 2017, in general, repeats the trend of the composite CPI: the maximum value was reached in November (11.3%), the minimum - in January (3%).

In November 2018, the rise in prices for services for the month exceeded the same indicator for food and non-food products. Services were up by 3.3%, consumer products - by 2.7%, non-food products – by 1.2%.

The price changes for the period from the beginning of the year in terms of these groups showed a similar situation: services for 11 months became more expensive by 14.3%, consumer products - by 11.4 and non-food products - by 11.1%.

Analysis of the structure of the impact of price changes for the month showed that, in November despite the services leadership in price increases (3.3%), consumer products dominate on the degree of influence, taking into account the share of each consolidated group ((influence 1.2 percentage point) (p.p.)).

As for the composite index of the CPI for 11 months of 2018, the leadership in contributing to the increase of the composite indicator also belongs to consumer products (4,9 p.p.), followed by non-food products (3,9 p.p.) and services (3,1 p.p.).

In percentage indicators, the share of the impact of goods prices growth on the composite CPI for the month was 69.3%, while the percentage of services was 30,7%.

In general, over the 11 months of the current year, the general tendency of the predominant influence of the increase in prices for goods over services on the CPI aggregate indicator is similar to the situation in November: the share of increase in prices for goods was 73.3%, services was 26.7% of the total impact.

As noted above, prices for consumer products rose by 2.7% over the month, which ensured CPI growth of 1.2 percentage points. Compared to December 2017, the increase in prices was 11.4%, which led to growth of the aggregate indicator by 4.9 percentage points.

In annual terms (in November 2018 relative to November 2017) prices for goods of this group on average increased by 19.5%.

The prices of consumer products rose significantly in January (for month 3.5%), September (3.3%) and November (2.6%).

In November, among the main groups of food products, a particular impact on the increase in food prices and, consequently, on the general rise in prices for the month in the consumer sector, was caused by the increase in prices for fruit and vegetables (a 6.5% increase in prices and an impact on the growth of the consolidated CPI 0,5 p.p), bread products (respectively 2.8% and 0.2 p.p), meat products (1.5% and 0.2 p.p), eggs (9.2% and 0.1 p.p). Only due to the rise in prices for the listed groups of goods, the growth of the consolidated CPI per month has been ensured by 1 percentage points.

Regarding the end of last year, the rise in prices was registered in almost all the main groups of foodstuffs, with the exception of potatoes and eggs (a decrease in prices by 26.4% and 0.4% respectively).

The most significant bread products for the month rose in September of this year (on average by 10.9%), which was largely due to the liberalization of the prices for bread and flour. In October and November, the trend of rising prices persisted, although it was not so pronounced. In November, rice rose in price by 7.1%, mug bean - by 3.1%, wheat flour and bread from it - by 2.2%, wheat flour of the first grade - by 2.1%, pastries - by 1.7%, pasta - by 1.2%. Along with this, peas fell by 3.1% and buckwheat - by 0.4%.

Significantly in November, rice prices went up in Tashkent (15.2% per month), Bukhara and Namangan regions (respectively by 11.8% and 11% per month), prices were more stable and with minimal growth for rice in Jizzakh (3.3% per month), Andijan (1.9%) and Ferghana regions (1%).

In general, over the past 11 months, rice gained the most in price in Khorezm region (1.8 times), the growth was minimal in Kashkadarya region (41.8%).

Wheat flour significantly increased in September 2018 in the current month (8.4%). In October and November, the rise in prices for it was 0.5% and 2.1% per month.

Higher than in other regions in November 2018, prices for flour increased in Tashkent city (7.9% per month) and Andijan region (5.6%). The minimum was the increase in prices in Khorezm region (1% per month).

In general, for 11 months, the most expensive flour went up in Ferghana (19.4%), Tashkent (16.8%) and Andijan regions (15.8%). The minimum rise in prices for flour was in Jizzakh region (4.8%) and Republic of Karakalpakstan (6.4%).

In November 2018, of meat and fish products, the most significant increase in prices was observed for poultry meat (except chicken legs) - by 4.2%, live and chilled fish - by 3.8%, chicken drumstick and chicken legs - by 2.3% , beef (except for boneless meat) - by 1.6%, sausages and canned meat - by 1.5%, meat semi-finished products and by-products - by 1.3%, lamb - by 0.8%.

From the beginning of the year, live and chilled fish became more expensive by 35.1%, beef (except for boneless meat) - by 26%, lamb - by 23.5% boneless beef – 14.9%, chicken drumstick and chicken leg - by 2%, other poultry meat - by 1.5%.

During 11 months of the current year, the peak of the rise in prices for meat products was registered in June, when over the month prices rose by 4.3%.

Significantly in November beef (except for boneless meat) went up in Andijan and Samarkand regions (by 3.3% and 3.2% per month). The growth was minimal in Ferghana region (1.5% per month). From the beginning of the year, beef with bones rose in price to the maximum in Syrdarya region (39.1%), the lowest was the increase in prices in Kashkadarya region (19.2%).

Lamb in November rose most of all in Andijan region (3% per month), least of all in Syrdarya region (0.3%). Regarding the end of last year, higher than in other regions, there was a rise in prices for mutton in Syrdarya region (34.4%), the rise in prices in Andijan region (14.2%) was minimal.

Prices for poultry products since August have acquired a steady upward trend. Over the past four months, eggs have increased in price by 31.9%, poultry meat (except for legs) – 16.2%, chicken legs and drumsticks – 8.0%.

In November 2018, fruits and vegetables rose in price by 6.5% over the month. Analysis of changes in prices for fruits and vegetables over the period since the beginning of the year showed that the peak of their level prices for fruits and vegetables reached in April 2018 (19.5% compared to December 2017). The lowest was the price level in August (20.5% lower than at the end of 2017).

During the period from May to August (the time of the main saturation of the market with the products of the new crop), prices for fruit and vegetable products decreased by 33.5%, and for the last three months, fruits increased by 19.8%. Of fruits and vegetables in November 2018, the maximum price increase was registered for cucumbers (2.3 times), the largest decrease was for carrots (11.5%).

In November, the rise in prices for a month for tomatoes was higher in Namangan region (by 2 times) and Andijan, Bukhara and Samarkand (by 1.7 times) in November. The minimum increase occurred in Tashkent region (by 25%). Cabbage for the month rose most of all in Andijan (9.9%) and Kashkadarya (9.1%) regions. In Tashkent city and Samarkand region, cabbage, by contrast, became cheaper by 8% per month, in Jizzakh - by 7.4%, in Syrdarya region - by 1.6%.

In general, in January-November 2018, on average in the republic, tomatoes fell by 34.3%. The most significant decline in prices occurred in the Republic of Karakalpakstan (by 62.6%). The cabbage, on the contrary, during this period significantly increased in price (on average in the republic 2.5 times), the growth was greatest in Namangan region (3.1 times).

In November, the dynamics of price changes per month for onions in the regions of the republic was uneven. Thus, in seven regions there was a rise in prices, in four regions a decline, and in three regions - prices remained at the level of October. The highest was the increase in prices in Andijan and Surkhandarya regions (by 5.1%), the largest decrease was in Tashkent city (by 2.2%).

Regarding December 2017, the bow dropped in all regions. The national average price decreased by 31.1%.

For a month, carrots became cheaper in almost all regions, excluding Kashkadarya and Tashkent regions, where prices remained at the level of October. The most pronounced decline in prices for the month was manifested in Khorezm region (by 23.6%). Compared to the end of 2017 in November of this year, prices for carrots in the republic were significantly higher and, on average, the prices in the country increased during this period by 1.9 times. The highest was the rise in prices in Kashkadarya and Khorezm regions (2.8 and 2.7 times), the lowest - in the Namangan region (by 58.7%).

In November, cucumbers went up in all regions of the country. The most significant increase occurred in Syrdarya region (2.7 times per month), the lowest was the increase in prices in Jizzakh and Surkhandarya regions (1.9 times per month). However, prices for cucumbers in November remained below the level of December 2017 on average by 31.6%.

Potatoes for the month rose the most in price in Samarkand (17.4%) and Jizzakh (13%) regions. In the three regions of the republic, prices, on the contrary, decreased: in Andijan - by 1.3%, Ferghana - by 2.5%, Khorezm - by 1.5%. However, as in the case of cucumbers, potato prices in November in all regions were below the level of the end of last year (an average of 26.5%).

In November, the range of price changes for apples was also ambiguous: the maximum for a month, prices for apples rose in the Namangan region (4.7%), most significantly decreased in Andijan region (4%).

In January-November, the average price level for apples decreased by 0.6%. The dynamics of price changes for grapes for November in territorial aspect had a wide range. In nine regions, prices rose from 1% (Khorezm region) to 7.5% (Namangan region). In the rest of the regions, prices fell from 2.3% (Andijan region) to 4.9% (Ferghana region).

Compared to December 2017, prices for grapes decreased in all regions of the country. The average decline in Uzbekistan was 39.8%. Excluding changes in prices for fruits and vegetables, the CPI for foodstuffs in November was 1.9% - 14.7%.

The rise in prices for non-food products in November 2018 by 1.2% led to a growth in the consolidated CPI for the month by 0.4 percentage points. In general, over 11 months, non-food products on average added 11.1% in price, which resulted in an increase in the consolidated CPI over this period by 3.9 percentage points.

Of non-food products, the leadership in fuel consumption for automobiles by the degree of influence on the overall inflation growth in the consumer sector in November 2018.

Based on the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated November 1, 2018 No. 897 “On the phased change of prices and tariffs for fuel and energy resources”, increased prices for automobile fuel were introduced.

From November 1, 2018, the price of gasoline AI-80 is 4000 soums per liter, brand AI-91 –4500 soums per liter, diesel fuel - 4800 soums per liter, and IVF diesel fuel - 4900 soums per liter.

According to information published on the official website of the Ministry of Finance, the analysis of prices for natural gas sold through gas filling stations showed that since 16 November, the natural gas sold by them has risen by 300-400 soums (from 1700 - 1800 soums to 2000 - 2200 soums) , that is, the initial price increase was about 17-22%. As a result of the establishment of strict price monitoring by the State Committee on Competition, Uzgosneftegazinspektsiya and state tax service bodies in order to detect unfair competition, a significant part of gas fueling stations reduced the size of the increase in prices for gas sold.

Somewhat lower in the ranking by the degree of influence on consumer price growth for non-food products for the month are price changes for clothes (1.1% increase in prices), footwear (1.3%) and medicines (1.4%), the price increases for which It is mainly determined by the weakening of the national currency against the US dollar. In total, due to this factor, the CPI increased by another 0.2 p.p over the month.

According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, from October 15 to November 15 of the current year, the US dollar rose by 1.1% (from 8181,08 to 8271,27 soums for 1 US dollar). Leadership in influencing the increase in the consumer price index for non-food products for 11 months of the current year, as before, belongs to building.

Building materials became cheaper on average by 0.3% in a month, which made it possible to reduce inflationary pressure and reduce the rate of inflation by 0.01 p.p. Cement became cheaper by 1.7%, putty - by 0.8%, window glass – 0.6%. In general, in January-November, construction materials rose in price by 18.6%, securing leadership in the extent of their influence on the growth of the consumer price index for non-food products over this period.

Tariffs for services for the population in November 2018 increased by 3.3%, which led to the growth of the consolidated CPI for the month by 0.7 percentage points. In January-November of the current year, tariffs in this area increased by 14/3%, which ensured an increase in the consolidated indicator for the period by 3/1 percentage points

A key factor in the growth of prices for paid services to the population in November 2018 was the increase in tariffs for housing and communal services. Over the month, tariffs for the population in this area increased by 8.7%, which led to an increase in total inflation in the consumer sector by 0.5 percentage points.

On the basis of Resolution No. 897 of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated November 1, 2018 “On the phased change in prices and tariffs for fuel and energy resources”, increased tariffs for electricity and gas for the population were introduced.

Liquefied gas for the population went up by 18.8%, network gas - by 10.4%, electricity - by 9.4%. For information: from November 16 the following tariffs are established for the population: mains gas - 320 soums per 1м 3 , liquefied gas - 950 soums price 1 kg, electricity - 250 soums per 1 kW/h.

From other types of housing and communal services, on the basis of decisions of local authorities in a number of regions, tariffs for hot water supply and heating, cold water supply and sewerage services were raised. Thus, the charge for heating and hot water supply increased by 10% in the Republic of Karakalpakstan, Jizzakh, Namangan and Surkhandarya regions, heating tariffs increased by 10.1% in Kashkadarya region and 9.7% in Andijan region. In other regions, tariffs for heating and hot water remained at the level of October 2018, in connection with which the average increase in tariffs for heating in the republic was 3.9%, hot water supply – 2.4%.

Fees for cold water and sewage increased in three regions: Syrdarya (20%), Tashkent (21.9%) regions and Tashkent city (11.1%).

Of the other types of services observed in November, the tariffs for travel in passenger motor transport increased by an average of 2.4% in the republic, the cost of training for driver training courses - by 4%, medical services went up by 1.9%, domestic services - by 0.9%.

In general, in January-November 2018, the consumer price index for services was influenced by the increase in regulated tariffs in the utility sector (average in the republic by 23.9%), increase in the cost of travel in passenger transport (12.7%), and recreation services (18.9%), educational services, including the cost of education in language courses and driver training (16.7%), sports services (13,6%), communications (11.3%), and also domestic services ( 10.2%).

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