Prices for goods and services in the consumer market on average increases by 1.3% in October

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- In October 2018, prices for goods and services in the consumer market of Uzbekistan on average increased by 1.3%. In general, over 10 months, inflation in the consumer sector was 9.5%.

An analysis of the nature of changes in consumer prices for each month of the year showed that the most significant inflationary pressure on the economy was applied in the first quarter (inflation for three months was 4,9%) and September-October (1,8% and 1,3% respectively month).

On average, goods for the month added to the price of 1.5% and services – 0.5%.

Compared to the end of 2017, prices for goods increased by an average of 9.1% and services rose by 10.7%.

Analysis of inflation in annual terms (in the month of the current year relative to the corresponding month of the previous year) showed that in the first eight months of the current year, the nature of inflation tended to gradually decrease. Since September, the annual inflation rate again set a course for an increase, and in October of 2018 compared to October 2017, it was 16.3%.

In October of 2018, the rise in food prices for the month significantly exceeded the same indicator for non-food goods and services. Food prices rose by 2.3%, while services and non-food products added only 0.5%.

The study of price changes for the period from the beginning of the year in the context of these groups showed the opposite situation: leadership in price increases belongs to services (10.7%).

Analysis of the structure of the impact of price changes for each month of 2018 showed that in January, inflationary pressures were largely due to the increase in food prices. In February and March, the impact of rising prices for food and nonfood products was approximately in equal proportions and prevailed over the influence of price trends for services.

In April and May, due to the growth of administratively-regulated tariffs, the emphasis of influence shifted towards services. In June and July, the saturation of the consumer market with agricultural products of the new crop, as well as lower prices for poultry, meat and eggs ensured not only a decrease in the consumer price index for food products, but also a composite consumer price index.

For August was characterized by a uniform distribution of the impact of price changes across large groups. Starting in September, price trends in food products again took a leading position in the degree of influence. In October, this trend continued, and the main contribution to the increase in inflation was made by the increase in food prices.

Due to this factor, inflation in October increased by 1 percentage point (hereinafter referred to as p.p.). The rise in prices for non-food products added another 0.2 p.p. to the cumulative index for the month, services - 0.1 p.p.

As noted above, the prices of foodstuffs increased by 2.3% over the month, which ensured an increase in the CPI by 1 percentage point. As compared to December 2017, the price increase was 8.5%, which led to a growth of the aggregate indicator by 3.7 percentage points.

Foodstuffs rose most significantly in January (3.5% over the month), September (3.3%) and October (2.3%).

June and July were characterized by a decrease in the general level of food prices, which is largely due to the massive saturation of the market with fruits and vegetables of the new crop, as well as lower prices for products such as poultry, eggs and sugar.

In October, of the main groups of foodstuffs, a special impact on the increase in food prices and, as a result, on the general rise in prices for the month in the consumer sector, had an increase in the cost of bread products (a rise in prices of 0.9%), meat products (1.1%) , eggs (15.1%) and fruit and vegetable products (8.3%).

The main rise in prices for bread products was registered in September of 2018, when, on average, prices increased by 10.9% over the month. In October, there was a tendency of growth in prices for goods of this group: pasta and flatbread went up by 2.6% for the month, premium bread - by 2.5%, rice - by 1.4%, premium flour - by 1.2%, first grade – 0.4%. Along with this, there was a decrease in prices for buckwheat - by 1.4%, beans - by 1.2%, peas - by 0.5%.

In October of 2018, of meat and fish products, the most significant increase in prices was observed for poultry meat (except for chicken legs) - by 4.4%, half-smoked sausage - by 2.5%, chicken drumstick and chicken legs - by 2%, boiled sausage - by 1.7%, beef (except for boneless meat) - by 1%, ham and other smoked products - by 0.9%, pork, semi-finished meat and by-products - by 0.8%, minced meat, lamb, boneless beef - by 0.7%.

During 10 months of 2018, the price dynamics for meat products was uneven. The peak of the rise in prices for the month for goods of this group was noted in June (an average increase of 4.3%). Poultry meat prices, on the contrary, declined monthly until July and, starting in August, began to rise.

The range of price fluctuations for poultry products during January-October 2018 was more significant. The maximum price increase for eggs and poultry meat (except chicken legs) was recorded in October (by 15.1% and 4.4% respectively), for chicken leg, chicken drumsticks - in August (by 2.3%).

The largest decline in prices for eggs was observed in February (10.5% for the month), poultry meat (except chicken legs) - in August (by 2.8%), chicken drumstick, and quartering - in May (by 2.1%) .

Analysis of monthly changes in prices for fruits and vegetables showed that the maximum increase in prices for goods of this group occurred in January and October (8% and 8.3% per month), the largest decrease was in June and July (18.2% and 15.2%). Regarding the end of last year, the general level of prices for fruits and vegetables reached its peak in April (19.5%), and began to decline in the following months.

Of fruits and vegetables in October of the current year, the maximum increase in prices was recorded for cabbage (50.3%), the largest decrease - for garlic (10.4%).

Excluding changes in prices for fruits and vegetables, the CPI for foodstuffs in October was 1.4%, and for January-October –12.6%.

The increase in prices for non-food products in October of the current year by 0.5% led to an increase in the consolidated CPI for the month by 0.2 percentage points. In general, over 10 months, non-food products on average added 9.7% in price, which resulted in an increase in the consolidated CPI over this period by 3.4 percentage points.

The depreciation of the national currency against the US dollars and other major currencies has had a decisive influence on the rise in prices for non-food products, and in the first place, in terms of imported products (clothing, footwear, communications, personal care products, basic household goods, electrical appliances, etc.).

The main influence on the consumer price index in the group of nonfood products in October was caused by the growth of prices for clothes - by 1.2%, shoes - by 0.9%, communications and household textiles - by 0.7%, building materials - by 0.4% and fuel for cars - by 0.3%, including propane - by 1.9%. Leadership in influencing the increase in the consumer price index for non-food products for 10 months of the current year, as before, belongs to building materials, household fuel (coal), clothing, footwear and fuel for cars.

Of building materials, prices for wallpaper rose by 2.4% in October, brick by 0.9%, slate, linoleum and laminate flooring by 0.6%, paints and lumber by 0.5%. For 10 months, the brick went up by 49.7%, cement - by 24.3%, wallpaper - by 19.1%, putty - by 16.6%, slate - by 14.9%.

Tariffs for services for the population in October of the current year increased by 0.5%, which led to the increase in the consolidated CPI for the month by 0.1 percentage points In January-October of the current year, tariffs in this area increased by 10.7%, which ensured an increase in the aggregate indicator for the period by 2.4 percentage points.

The key factor in the growth of prices for paid services to the population in October of this year was the increase in tariffs for passenger transport services (a 1.4% increase over the month) and prices for household services rendered to the population (by 1%).

In general, in January-October of the current year, the consumer price index for services was influenced by the increase in regulated tariffs in the utility sector (by an average of 14%), increase in the cost of travel in passenger transport (10.7%), and leisure services (18.3%), educational services, including the cost of education in language courses and driver training (16%), as well as services of a domestic character (9.2%).

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